Atlanta Braves Morning Chop: Acuna or later?

Lots of debate recently about Ronald Acuna and when he might hit the majors… let’s take a look and some of the issues involved.

In recent history, the Atlanta Braves have not been shy about promoting players to the majors.  In fact, the mantra has always been a 2-verse song:

• ‘They will tell us when they’re ready’
• ‘We will promote them when they’re ready’

Such was the case with both Dansby Swanson and Ozzie Albies.  You could argue the same for Sean Newcomb, Max Fried, and Lucas Sims.

And there’s yet another one happening today:

Ronald Acuna‘s case is a bit different… but only slightly.

The best (qualified) hitter in the International League is Yandy Diaz of the Columbus Clippers – though he’s actually with the parent Cleveland Indians right now.  Diaz, a Cuban expatriate, is 26 years old and hitting .350.

The next closest to him are Jesse Winker and Rusney Castillo, both at .314.

19-year-old Ronald Jose Acuna went 2 for 4 last night, knocking in a run and stealing 2 bases.  He’s now hitting .354 in AAA (39 games, 161 AB).

The complicating factors are the 40-man roster, the Rule 5 draft, and “starting his service clock”.

First off:  the service time bit.

• One year of service time is defined by 172 days on the 25-man (active) roster.  The major league season is 183 days, by the way.
• Teams have 6 full years of control on each player… the latter 3 being the arbitration years.
• If a player qualifies in the ‘Super 2’ category, then he is awarded an extra arbitration year.  For that, you must be among the top 22% of service time when between 2 and 3 years of service time at the end of their 3rd full major league season.
• So if a team holds a hot prospect in the minors for about 2 weeks when the next season begins, they will get a maximum of 183 – 14, or 169 days of service that year… and thus one more year of control.  The player will be a Super 2, but the 2 weeks withheld buys them another year.

September call-ups will gain close to 30 days of service time.  But if the Braves are expecting/planning to have Acuna on their Opening Day roster for 2018, then that’s actually irrelevant – same as the case with Ozzie Albies.  30 days, 50 days… whatever.  That number won’t matter.

Another mantra we’ve heard (though I can’t put my finger on a quote to cite) from the Front Office is that the team doesn’t get in the game of manipulating the service time clocks.  In other words, they won’t jerk a player around by holding them in the minors to buy an extra year of control.

That’s nice of them – probably doesn’t make the best of business sense, but it’s nice.

The Rule 5 Draft and the 40-man roster

There are concerns that the Braves are going to be over-extended this Fall and could lose players because there is a lack of 40-man space.  Those concerns are valid, but I also expect that there could be some ‘aggressive non-tenders’ this Fall to help combat the problem.

Well, since Minter is being added today, you can probably already be stunned at that.

How many need to be protected?  Glad you asked… and that question has been wonderfully answered for us…

I won’t try to speculate on how this will be handled at this time, though there are some more obvious names than others:  Luiz Gohara is a lead-pipe cinch to be protected.  Beyond that… let’s just say that I expect a lot of wheeling and dealing by Coppy after the World Series and prior to November 20th… the date in which rosters have to be set in advance of the Rule 5 draft.

The addition of AJ. Minter today will require a 40-man roster spot (2 are open, as of this morning correction: ONE spot is open…the addition of Dan Winkler, taken off the 60-day DL, was #39).  So any promotion of Acuna or Gohara or whomever would require the removal of someone else.

But the reason Acuna’s case is different (again, my opinion) has nothing to do with the 40-man, the Rule 5, or the service time.  It’s because of Matt Kemp, Nick Markakis, and Ender Inciarte.

If Acuna is called up, he’s gonna play.  That displaces at least one of these veterans.  It also signals who the “odd man out” might be next year, which would reduce Coppy’s leverage (if he even has any) for possible off-season trade negotiations to move that player.

So if there’s any reason for Acuna to stay in the minors on September 5th, that would be it.  I’ll sure that Coppy has already been trying to move one of the current corner outfielders before August 31st, but it’s a tall order… and may be a tall order this Winter, too.

Rest assured, Acuna is coming… we just don’t know exactly when.

Gwinnett’s Incredible Schedule

I admit that I wouldn’t want to be operating on the Gwinnett Braves schedule right now.  They are in the midst of a horrid stretch to finish the year:

• Their final off-day of the season was on August 14.  The season ends on September 4th (Labor Day).
• They have 3 doubleheaders over the last three weeks
• They started this run with travel to Scranton (PA), Buffalo (NY), and Durham (NC).
• After a quick (4 games in 3 days) trip back home this weekend, they go to Norfolk (VA) , then back home to finish the year – might as well call it 6 road series’ in a row given the travel involved.

So that’s 24 games in 21 days – something that could never happen at the major league level.  It’s almost a relief that they won’t make the playoffs (elimination number is 7).  Still, they are 64-63 on the year, and that’s not half bad.

Here’s your happy box from last night’s shutout win:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Next: Is Kemp the Catalyst?

TONIGHT:  Erasmo Ramirez and R.A. Dickey for the finale.  7:35pm at STP.