The Atlanta Braves go into the offseason with a need to protect assets from the Rule 5 draft. Today’s promotion of A.J. Minter fills every the last vacant slot leaving the Braves with little wiggle room.
The topic is a hot one for the Atlanta Braves fans because Ronald Acuna is being very rude to AAA pitching and fans want a look at the future. As Alan pointed out this morning the promotion decision will depend on multiple factors that requires more detail.
A new Rule 5 paradigm
A few days ago Cardinals president of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak told Derrick Gould of the St. Louis Post Dispatch times had changed. In the past two seasons the Cardinal lost prospects from the lower minors who were claimed and kept.
"“I think definitely some lessons were learned from the last couple of years. . . We have to understand the playing field has changed. . (now) there is always going to be a team or two that can take . . .a chance. . . go back five, six, seven years ago that wasn’t happening . . . Now people are being more aggressive . . about talent collection.”"
He was talking about the Padres who after throwing money down the drain in 2015 in an attempt to buy wins, took a completely new tack after the 2016 season. They not only drafted Allen Cordoba from the Cardinals with the third pick of the draft, they also traded for the first (Miguel Diaz), second (Luis Torrens) and the eighth (Justin Haley) selections.
Other teams were active as well but the way the Padres attacked the draft was a wake up call to other GMs. Wide awake now we look at the Braves system in relation to Rule 5 players
The players considered
As soon as the World Series ends the disabled list evaporates and players are either on the 40 man roster or they aren’t. The first order of business in this speculative decision exercise is to find out how many spots are needed.
The tweet featured in Alan’s post provides a list of those who are eligible to be claimed under Rule 5. As a reminder here are the criteria.
Players are eligible for selection in the Rule 5 draft who are not on their major league organization’s 40-man roster and:
- were 18 or younger on the June 5 preceding their signing and this is the fifth Rule 5 draft upcoming; or
- were 19 or older on the June 5 preceding their signing and this is the fourth Rule 5 draft upcoming and
- not be on the team’s 40-man roster
Updated list of Braves players not on 40-man roster, who are newly eligible for Rule 5 draft selection this December. pic.twitter.com/B9tKTGNf4Y
— Brian Crout (@sogobravo) August 9, 2017
The easy choice is any nationally ranked player. Luiz Gohara take one step forward.
Next would come players in our top 30 list – I’ll use MLBPipeline’s list.
Anyone else?
There are a couple of familiar names on the list. Caleb Dirks was a closer for California Baptist and worked exclusively from the pen so far for the Braves. While his numbers aren’t eye popping pitchers with closer mentality are useful so the Braves might add him. Kyle Kinman is a lefty reliever who may also be considered if they have room.
I’m not sure Chad Sobotka should be on the list. He missed a full season due to injury; teams typically ask for and get an extra year in those cases. In any event I don’t see him being selected.
I’d add Dirks giving us six potential additions, how many vacancies are there?
The 40 man roster today
The roster 40 man roster actually has 42 names right now; Jacob Lindgren and Armando Rivero are both on the 60 day DL. Rivero has yet to throw a pitch for the Braves since being selected from the Cubs in last year’s Rule 5 draft. He had shoulder fatigue during the Venezuelan winter league and suffered from shoulder soreness this spring after just two bullpen sessions.
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The Braves could well offer Rivero try to give him back to the Cubs to clear a roster spot but he would first have to be outrighted off the roster giving other teams a chance to claim him. If he isn’t claimed the Braves could offer him back to the Cubs knowing they have no room for him either and hoping to work out a trade. In any case I suspect he’s off the 40 man before draft day.
The Yankees hated to lose Lindgren so I expect the Braves to hold him and hope for a successful rehab
We have three free agent coming off the list as well; Kurt Suzuki, Brandon Phillips, and Jason Motte.
I believe the Braves will exercise options for both R.A. Dickey and Tyler Flowers so at this point we have four empty spots. That’s not enough for the five we named nor does it allow us to claim anyone.
Will you DFA me now?
There are a few candidates in line to be DFA and a couple who could be nontendered. I see the following as DFA options.
- Adonis Garcia – replaced
- Jace Peterson – replaced and out of options
- Mauricio Cabrera – back to his wild walking ways and he’s out of options
The non tender list is equally easy to create.
- Ian Krol – fooled people last season but not this and he’s out of options
- Danny Santana – We have too many utility men who can’t hit and he’s out of options I’d keep Jace before I’d keep Danny
- Micah Johnson – See above and out of options
Enrique Burgos is out of options as well, they will likely have a look at him in September to see if they think he can make the roster next year.
That’s A Wrap
I’m sure I failed to protect or DFA or nontendered your favorite player(s); sorry about that. This scenario has at least 10 roster spots relatively easily available and plenty of room to allow fans to have a look at Acuna in September. . . if they want to do that and as Alan suggested, I’m not sure they do.
Bear in mind that this is just a projection and things will change between now and Rule 5 draft day. While I expect trades I’m not sure they happen quickly or be the one’s most expect.
It is quite possible we’ll have significant changes to the roster by the time winter meetings and the Rule 5 Draft are upon us. One thing I am sure of is that the trade won’t please everyone. After all it’s baseball.