The Atlanta Braves are coming to the end of the third year of their rebuild. Some fans think it should be complete, others say it’s going well. Who’s right?
Twice in the past three weeks I’ve seen fans comment that suggest the Atlanta Braves rebuild is in awful shape. The complaints fall in to four general categories.
- The trades made were all or mostly bad
- The kids should have been used sooner
- The Cubs/Astros did it better and faster
I’ve answered this is comments but for some reason everyone doesn’t read every comment I make. For those who don’t here’s what I’ve said there with more data.
Trades
When John Hart took over the major league team was saddled with bad contracts and players who were going to be free agents following the 2015 season. The minor league system was the worst in the majors with no players on MLB’s top 100 prospect list and few pieces with any projection.
Righting the ship required a bottom up rebuild and Hart promised to do that quickly. To rebuild the quickly the team had to reduce payroll and restock the minors. This process was bound to cause hard feelings among fans who saw favorites leave with no immediate benefit visible on the field.
I didn’t agree with every trade and not every trade was a winner. So far the trades netted seven players who were first round draft picks. While Chris Withrow and Aaron Blair have not lived up to that ranking, the value returned is certainly well above average.
The Heartburn
The only real complaints surround trading Craig Kimbrel, Andrelton Simmons, Alex Wood, Evan Gattis, Justin Upton and Jason Heyward. The basis for the complaints being those were very good players that the fans loved. The only trade I suspect they wish they had back is that of Alex Wood.
A rebuilding team doesn’t need a world-class closer and Melvin Upton was an albatross around the team’s neck and a burden on the payroll. Looking back they could certainly have received a boatload of prospects for Kimbrel if they had held on to him. However, opportunity to divest themselves of the albatross and his contract was unlikely to come again so deal was done.
Atlanta Braves
Evan Gattis brought the team Mike Foltynewicz and to a lesser extent Rio Ruiz. While I and others underestimated his catching ability, Folty is a fair return for Gattis.
Heyward and Justin Upton were not going to sign back with the Braves. A look at their contracts will tell you that there’s no way the payroll could handle contracts that size.. JUP brought us a former Top ten draft pick in Max Fried, a pair of Petersons and Mallex Smith.
Heyward turned into Ender Inciarte, Dansby Swanson and Aaron Blair. It’s my belief based on his statement upon being traded – or lack of such – that Simmons was an unhappy player. The Braves aren’t in the habit of keeping unhappy players and moved him quickly.
I believe they could have gotten more elsewhere however such things are usually handled swiftly by all clubs. Sean Newcomb is not an equivalent talent so far as Coppy suggests and the other players have moved on. Newcomb does however appear to be a solid middle of the order arm going forward and that has value.
He shoulda done better
The other trade complaint is that Hart/Coppy could have/should have done a deal and lacked the acumen to get it done. Bluntly that’s just plain silly.
Trades require both sides to agree on value. While you may believe that the offer made for a player was poor, it’s wise to remember we have no idea what was offered to whom for which player. We are also not privy to such things as scouting reports and medical examinations, both of which help set a player’s value.
Hart said quite clearly last winter when talk of trading for Jose Quintana was filling the blogs, that they did not value Quintana as they did Chris Sale and weren’t going to pay the asking price. If teams do not agree on value there is no trade.
Even when front offices agree sometimes ownership won’t allow the trade as happened to the Astros when attempting to deal for a pitcher at the deadline. Both front offices agreed and the Astros ready to process it but the deal was nixed by other teams owner.
Give the kids a chance
This mantra’s been repeated since the middle of last year and in fact the kids nearest ready were given a chance. Blair and Wisler had opportunities to grab a rotation spot and failed. Swanson came up and did well but slumped badly this year. Many of the same fans who wanted them promoted turned on them quickly when instant success wasn’t achieved.
The team signed older pitchers to make sure the young arms were allowed to grow at their own rate. That plan only half worked but it was the right idea. Blooding young players too soon can set them back or even permanently damage their careers.
The rule of thumb for pitchers often quoted by former GM’s is that it takes ten prospects to get two major league arms. So far we’re one for three and if Sims hold up two for four. It appears we may beat those odds if we let the pitchers come up when they are ready.
The rebuild is taking too long
This is the “Cubs/Astros did it better” spiel and it’s simply not accurate. The Braves are in the third year of the Hart/Coppolella front office plan. The Braves are 49-57 106 games into the season. According to the play index feature on baseball-reference, the 106 game point in 2014 for the Astros was July 28 and their record was 43-53. For the Cubs the date was July 30 and their record was 44-62. While the numbers don’t have a direct correlation the point is clear; the Braves rebuild is at th is point as good as either of the current favorite flavor.
Going slightly further, the Braves look slightly better off in the pitching department than either of those teams. When the Cubs got ready to make their push they signed the then 31-year-old Jon Lester for six years and $155M. The following year they signed 37-year-old John Lackey for two years and $32M and 35-year-old Ben Zobrist for four years $56M. This year those players earn a total of $57M and Heyward’s 1.1 fWAR (so far) takes the total to $85M.
To continue their winning ways they traded minor league everyday player depth for a rental of Aroldis Chapman and the aforementioned Quintana. Their system is starting to look a little thin.
The Astros took a different path and while they haven’t made major moves since rebuilding the Phillies pitching with the Ken Gils trade, their starters are looking questionable for the post season. They have pitching in the pipeline of course, next year looks really good and they will make the post season but their five year plan looks like six right now.
That’s A Wrap
The point is not that the Braves did everything right or better than the Cubs or Astros or anyone else. Nor is it a suggestion that Liberty Media are somehow not supporting the team, if you’ve seen Sun Trust Park and the Battery Atlanta you’ll know better. That whole complex is designed to make money for the Braves.
It is instead a reminder that good things don’t happen overnight and patience with a long term view is less likely to give you ulcers or make the local bartender rich.
Every trade wasn’t perfect and chances may have been missed but on the whole Hart and Coppolella have done a very good job so far. They will go after a top of the rotation arm this offseason and spend some of that prospect currency no doubt causing more groans of anguish.
There are other holes to fill but as Matt Kemp and Nick Markakis fade into the sunset the Braves everyday line and their pitching will be young and pipeline will remain full of talent.
I know many will disagree and want to discuss this. I’m going to be out tomorrow and maybe Saturday as the doctor wants to take my prostate and play handball or something with it. So I won’t be able to respond immediately. I will however get back with you as soon as possible. In the meantime I’m sure Alan will make his presence felt.
Until then remember baseball is a game and supposed to be fun, treat each other well so it stays that way.