There was discussion. There was rumor. There was movement. But in the end, none of that – save for the deal sending Jaime Garcia to New York via Minnesota – happened for the Braves.
Always a bridesmaid; never the bride? That’s probably the general feeling among fans of the Atlanta Braves today as a predicted “meh” trade deadline came to fruition Monday afternoon.
So what do we make of this? It’s pretty simple, actually. Because it would have been the same answer even if the team had participated in a flurry of trades:
It’s all about 2018 and beyond now.
So now we need to look long and hard at the members of this club – on and off the various rosters – and figure out who fulfills a long-term need for the franchise and who doesn’t.
For while this trade deadline could have played a part in the coming future, its results mean that this Winter has become more important.
Here’s how that might play out, then:
The Outfield
- THE PRESENT. Matt Kemp, Ender Inciarte, Nick Markakis
- THE FUTURE. Kemp (probably), Inciarte, and Acuna.
The future is going to mean trying to find a place to trade Nick Markakis this Winter. It would be more about Matt Kemp, but his contract will be the limiting factor.
The Braves owe Kemp another $43.5 million after 2017 (sure – there’s a bit coming from other sources, but that’s how much he will get). He’s played well, but will turn 34 next season and doesn’t move like him once did, so unless an important DH role opens up, he will most likely still be with us.
That’s probably okay, given his bat, but it’s why Markakis will probably be the odd man out as Ronald Acuna‘s break-out season in the minors will be tough to ignore. Markakis is due $11 million, and a deal could be found to free that spot for Acuna.
The Infield
- THE PRESENT. Freddie Freeman, Matt Adams, Brandon Phillips, Swanson/Camargo, Rodriguez/Camargo/Micah Johnson/Garcia etc.
- THE FUTURE. Freeman, Albies, Swanson, … Camargo?
It would actually be nice if the Braves were in the American League. There – I said it. Matt Adams would make a fine designated hitter.
Since that’s not going to happen, here’s the way I think the plan will go for the infield:
- Freddie Freeman. Back to first where he belongs – but applause for his play at third.
- Brandon Phillips. Thanks for coming by and bailing us out in 2017. Just don’t sign up with the Mets, okay?
- Adonis Garcia. Sorry about the thumb. Non-tender.
- Micah Johnson. Could be the final bench bat depending on his 2017 finish.
- Matt Adams. Traded somewhere, probably. He’s worth tendering a contract and worth keeping on the bench, but this 1st/3rd thing with Freeman may have to end.
- Sean Rodriguez. Under contract. Expect him to be the super utility guy unless someone falters.
- Dansby Swanson. 3 singles in 11 AB so far with Gwinnett (plus 2 walks/2K). He will be back in September, but may have to earn his ticket back to Atlanta to stay. And it’s all about the slider. The bet here is that the adjustment will be made successfully.
- Ozzie Albies. Expect him up in September. Book it, but he might not be batting lead-off right away – a .332 OBP in AAA isn’t quite up to par for that role.
- Johan Camargo. Here’s the pleasant surprise. His play to date quite possibly could save the Braves a trade this off-season. The question will be this: will there be a drop-off as the league starts to adjust to him?
You could argue that there already has been: .158 over the past week. But then the whole team has stunk offensively, so that may not be the best of measures. Still: Camargo has obviously played well, and that might very well earn him the nod going into next season.
Catcher
- THE PRESENT: Flowers and Suzuki
- THE FUTURE: Flowers and Suzuki
They are pretty good right now, so why change? Well, there’s one reason it could – that’s if Suzuki gets a free agent offer he can’t refuse.
Flowers has a contract option that the Braves would be foolish to not pick up. Suzi does not, and he could parlay a nice 2017 into a bigger payday.
The backup options: either free agent Jonathan Lucroy (traded today to the Rockies) or a rookie: Kade Scivicque, who was just promoted to AAA within the past week.
Most likely, the Braves would prefer a veteran to help handle their young pitchers and then use Scivicque as the ‘hot backup’ at Gwinnett. That could mean making a run at Lucroy, but others will be considering him strongly as well.
Alex Jackson – just promoted to AA – could also be a AAA candidate-in-waiting by next season.
So throwing an extra million at a 34½-year-old Hawaiian might not be a bad backup option for Flowers.
Bench Options
- Matt Adams. Noted earlier – back if not traded. Where he plays? That’s a point for debate, but let’s hope for a trade.
- Danny Santana. Arbitration year 1 next season. Non-tender candidate, but could return.
- Sean Rodriguez. Noted earlier – will be back.
- Micah Johnson. Noted earlier – borderline.
- Lane Adams. On balance, I think he’s earned a look next year for the end of the bench.
- Jace Peterson. Probably in same AAA role he’s currently occupying.
Pitching
- THE PRESENT: Teheran, Foltynewicz, Newcomb, Dickey, Sims (Tuesday)
- THE FUTURE: I have no idea.
You might have noticed by now. This is a discussion about the lack of deadline trades made by the Braves and what that might mean. There have been no trade thoughts for the future mentioned, either.
That’s right. However, that could be about to change when we get around to the rotation.
Let’s get this out of the way first: Robert Allen Dickey? Thank you for your service… you are free to put your feet up on the porch at a cabin of your choosing in the Smokies. We will remember you fondly.
I have an opinion that had the Braves made a deadline deal – Sonny Gray, perhaps – that Lucas Sims might have been an Oakland A right now. His callup was announced after the game today, but more notably, it was after the trade deadline had passed. This is total speculation, but I believe that he could have been one of the trade chips offered to Oakland.
That having passed, Sims will now have a shot to show that he belongs in the majors. Barring disaster. he will likely get the rest of the year – like Newcomb – to showcase himself for a permanent role.
After that… all bets are off. Atlanta could do any of the following this Winter:
- Pursue a free agent pitcher. Alex Cobb would be my personal target. He’d be expensive, but has been trending upwards in the past 2 seasons.
- Pursue a front-line starter trade. Yes, this is where Chris Archer comes in.
- Go with the guys who finish the season.
- Have what effectively amounts to an open tryout this Spring for 1-3 slots between Newcomb, Sims, Allard, Gohara, and Soroka. The default answer on that is that the latter trio start in AAA.
- Trade Teheran. The stated purpose here would be to make space for others, but the backup reason would be that you do this if you believe that he’s already peaked as a starter.
There are plenty of starting pitching options available to Atlanta. Now the trick is to try and figure out which ones have the star potential and which do not.
At the same time, you really do not want to go into a season with a fistful of youngsters that don’t have a lot of veteran guidance. That’s where a Cobb or Archer or Teheran come into play: having a couple of veterans, then Folty, would allow a more sustainable staff with just 2 rookies at the most.
But… trading?
Here’s a quick Q&A about this week’s inactivity:
Q: If the Braves had landed Sonny Gray, then how would that have worked?
A: He would have fulfilled the ‘Archer’ position – the obtained-by-trade front-line starter.
Q: But Archer is better than Gray, so why not wait until the off-season and go get Archer then?
A: Because getting pitching isn’t something you order out of a catalog. These guys are rare commodities and subject to the laws of supply and demand. So if you have a chance for one of them, you have to make the effort when they become available. That’s why Atlanta was in on Quintana, too.
Besides, in the off-season, there will be 29 clubs clawing for Archer. The good news – I guess – is that the Yankees, Cubs, and Dodgers have spent a lot of their better prospects this week to shore up their clubs… the Braves will at least have a better chance to get Archer than most others.
All that said, the Braves didn’t go “all in” for anybody. As Coppy put it (paraphrasing), they were in play for everybody, but not the primary player. That could change this Winter if the front office decides it’s truly time to compete.
Q: We got these great pitching kids, so why is a trade for a veteran needed in the first place?
A: Because none of them are proven. Sure – we hope they will all eventually blossom into aces, but (a) that’s not likely, and (b) even if so, that would happen at different rates. And as noted above, it’s a good idea to have veteran leadership available for the kids.
The Bullpen
Here’s where I would expect the Braves to spend most of their effort this Winter. There’s just been far too little consistency here.
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It’s far too early to look at any specific targets, but just to simplify the discussion, you can expect a lot of changes next year.
Jim Johnson is under contract for 2017, and barring an August trade, he will have to be back. Arodys Vizcaino? Same thing (it will be his last arbitration year).
But Rex Brothers, Jason Motte, Ian Krol and others… probably not. This is the part of the club that will likely make the most difference between mediocrity and contention in 2018.
There are some viable internal solutions, but look for some kind of external solution as well.
Summary
So the position players may be mostly already ‘in the house’ for 2018. It’s the pitching that could see the most changes coming, particularly in the bullpen.
So that was that the focus of trade deadline week this year – staying within limits and not doing anything to jeopardize the future while also being ready to pounce if the opportunity presented itself. But this off-season? Get ready.