MIAMI, FL – JULY 10: Michael Fulmer #32 of the Detroit Tigers and the American League and Justin Upton #8 of the Detroit Tigers and the American League look on during Gatorade All-Star Workout Day ahead of the 88th MLB All-Star Game at Marlins Park on July 10, 2017 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images)
There’s been some noise in the past couple of days about innovative trade deals to help rid Detroit of a bad contracts. Could the Braves take advantage?
The Atlanta Braves have already pulled this stunt themselves… multiple times. Melvin Upton and Craig Kimbrel went to San Diego for a reduced return. Hector Olivera went to San Diego – briefly – as the Braves took on Matt Kemp‘s contract.
Other variations have been done as well. Names like Bronson Arroyo. Carlos Quentin. Michael Bourn. Chris Johnson. Nick Swisher. Coppy has been very creative in moving contracts around.
Now another franchise is looking at doing the same.
The Detroit Tigers are finding very few takers to their plan to dump salaries. They had raised this possibility in public last October, leading us to consider at the time whether Justin Verlander might be an option for the Braves’ pitching needs last off-season.
Let’s take a quick look at exactly what their predicament is:
- Verlander. $28m now and in both 2018-19, plus a $22m vesting option.
- Miguel Cabrera. $28m now, $30 for the next 4 years and $32m in 2022-23. Plus options.
- Justin Upton. $22.1m now and through 2021.
- Jordan Zimmerman. $18m now, $24m next year, $25m in 2019 and 2020.
- Victor Martinez: $18m this year and next.
- Anibal Sanchez and Ian Kinsler have options for 2018, both with $5m buyouts.
Everybody else on their roster is getting under $5 million at this time, but that all adds up to $138 million committed for 2018, $111 million for 2019 – just for the active contracts. They will pay $21.1 million in payroll luxury taxes to MLB just for this season.
So the Tigers have three problems: (1) their payroll in general; (2) bad contracts that can’t be traded; and (3) a payroll tax. Never mind a lack of flexibility that will keep them from truly being competitive with their aging stars.
Let’s figure how they can get some help… and Dave Ramsey need not apply.
DETROIT, MI – AUGUST 4: Al Avila laughs during a news conference at Comerica Park after he was promoted to executive vice president of baseball operations and general manager on August 4, 2015 in Detroit, Michigan. Avila replaces Dave Dombrowski who was the Tigers’ general manager since 2002. (Photo by Duane Burleson/Getty Images)
What The Tigers Need
They don’t really need to do a lot… but they do need to move at least one big contract. They will “save” $21 million next year just by buying out Kinsler and Sanchez… roughly the same amount they are over the luxury tax threshold.
But they also need to have some further financial flexibility to be able to add better performers so that they can field a more competitive team.
There’s also the fine print. Like Justin Verlander having full no-trade authority. While he probably doesn’t want to necessarily stick around for a rebuild, he also has negotiation power… which reduces Detroit’s leverage.
Early in the process, the Tigers thought they could extract JV’s full contract buy plus multiple top prospects for Verlander’s services.
Unfortunately for the Tigers, GM Al Avila way overplayed his hand. That and his players holding those big contracts have (mostly) been under-performing. So literally no one has bit on that bluff.
I think they’ve smelled the coffee since then.
So that’s what has brought us to this, courtesy of Joel Sherman and the NY Post this week:
"Teams offer conflicting accounts if Detroit has ever made Michael Fulmer available. Executives for a few say no. Others say that Fulmer has been floated in conversations, and then Tigers officials pivot to the availability of Justin Verlander or Justin Wilson. And one executive said he received a concept from Detroit in which perhaps Fulmer would be available if the acquiring team agreed to take on a bad contract in addition, such as the one belonging to Jordan Zimmermann or Justin Upton."
Gosh, that really sounds like something in the midst of John Coppolella’s playbook, eh?
The Braves Angle
Okay, let’s start with the basics. The Braves would probably – definitely – be interested in acquiring 24-year-old starter Michael Fulmer. In just 2 seasons (and at age 24), he’s already looking like a budding ace… with 4 more years of cheap team control.
In short, if you liked Sonny Gray, you’ve gotta love Fulmer.
Detroit would be stupid to give him up… unless they launched their rebuilding campaign with a return worthy of him.
So could this approach possibly work for Atlanta? Here’s a few scenarios – which are by no means all-inclusive… or even endorsed, actually.
CABRERA and V-MART: There’s just no scenario for these contracts.
Might as well eliminate the ones with no future for Atlanta right up front. Miggy is still going to be good, but his MVP days are likely behind him. And V-Mart’s deal will be done soon enough. So let’s move on.
JUSTIN UPTON
Atlanta wouldn’t actually mind getting Justin Upton back… heck, they apparently tried to get him last year before he agreed to join the Tigers. But where would he play?
I could see a (somewhat bizarre) scenario in which the Braves send Nick Markakis to Detroit for Upton – that would cost the cost in half for Detroit and limit their exposure to 2018 alone – and each team would still have an outfielder.
Except… there’s Ronald Acuna lurking, which still gives Atlanta 4 outfielders. Could the Braves find a taker for Matt Kemp, too? An outfield of Upton, Inciarte, and Acuna sounds pretty sexy, but the Braves might have to pay down up to half of Kemp’s deal ($21.75m for both 2018-19) to find a buyer.
So such a sequence would look like this:
- Detroit: $11m savings in 2018 in taking Markakis; $88 million more for 2018-2021.
- Atlanta: $11m more in 2018; Justin Upton for 2018-2021 at $88m total (until he turns 34).
- Atlanta: Must find Kemp buyer, eating $10.5m in at least 2018. If a true “half contract” buydown, that means $21.75 million to another partner.
- Atlanta: After all that, they get to trade for Michael Fulmer. And commit to $66m extra dollars through 2021
Alternate scenario: the teams swap Kemp and Upton plus some of Kemp’s contract, which still saves Detroit a lot because of the shorter contract term. This might be easier for all concerned, though their real savings doesn’t kick it until Kemp’s term is done.
Extra Pitching?
JORDAN ZIMMERMANN
The Nationals knew exactly when to walk away as he became a free agent, subsequently signing a $110m deal for 5 years with Detroit.
He only managed 105 innings in 2016 and to date has exactly matched that this season… except that he’s been worse: 4.87 ERA last year; 5.81 this year.
This contract would be much harder to assume for Atlanta. $74 million remains on his deal after 2017, but the bigger question would be whether he can pitch effectively after groin and neck maladies. But none of that involved his arm, so… maybe?
But while the Braves could use Fulmer, a second starter – or a possible dead weight contract – would complicate things for the rotation.
Hence while Detroit would probably prefer to move Zimmermann most of all, getting Atlanta on board with that would be difficult unless they were convinced he was healthy.
A current 5.81 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and 5.5 innings per start (19 total starts) shows that he’s healthy – but not yet whole. But let’s concoct a scenario, at least:
- Detroit: Savings of $74 million over 2018-2020.
- Atlanta: Assumes the $74 million contract and the player.
- Atlanta: Gets to trade for Michael Fulmer
So can the 31 year old Zimmermann be counted on to recover his form from 2011-2015? That’s the big question even beyond that of the extra arm in the rotation.
JUSTIN VERLANDER
For this, we have to assume that he’d accept a trade to the Braves, which isn’t a lock at all. Additionally, reports are that his no-trade rights are in the contract, not (only) via his 10-and-5 rights, so even if dealt to another city, he couldn’t be flipped elsewhere very easily.
If JV were to demand the pickup of his 2020 vesting option, that raises the money he’s due from $56 million to $76 million, which sounds prohibitive, but essentially identical to the situation with Zimmermann.
Therefore, that leads us into the same questions:
- does adding two starters mess up the Braves’ roadmap?
- would Verlander (in this case) be productive through 2020?
This season, JV has been better – a 4.50 American League ERA and 21 starts, averaging less than 6 innings with a high WHIP (1.44). So it’s not a lot better, but he’s been generally more healthy, too.
So the scenario here would be identical to that of Zimmermann… a lot of money for 3 years for the right to get Fulmer, with questionable performance. So do you trust that of either JV or Zimm?
OF NOTE: In considering either of these pitching scenarios, if Atlanta were to accept the idea of taking 2 starters, that might open up the need to trade an existing pitcher – Julio Teheran, perhaps.
DETROIT, MI – JULY 6: Ian Kinsler #3 of the Detroit Tigers and Dixon Machado #49 of the Detroit Tigers celebrate with Justin Upton #8 of the Detroit Tigers after a 6-2 win over the San Franciso Giants at Comerica Park on July 6, 2017. (Photo by Duane Burleson/Getty Images)
One More Weird Option
If you liked those above, you’ll love this one:
- Braves and Tigers swap Brandon Phillips and Ian Kinsler, with Atlanta assuming the rest of Kinsler’s contract – including the $5 million option buyout for 2018.
- Braves acquire Anibal Sanchez, also assuming his contract with the $5 million buyout.
- Braves get to trade for Michael Fulmer
That saves Detroit a total of $23.5 million immediately and limits the damage to Atlanta’s future.
Part of the assumption here is that Phillips doesn’t have the Tigers on his 12-team no-trade list, but even if that can’t be done, the Braves would probably DFA Kinsler and Sanchez anyway – neither would be useful, except as part of the process to get Fulmer.
Of course none of these address the bigger question: once you help Detroit clear payroll, how much (in terms of prospects) would they want for Michael Fulmer?
I won’t try to address that in any detail here, but you can probably assume that a couple of Top 100 prospects would be involved. But 2 are better than at least 4, which is what it would be without the salary relief gymnastics.
The Point of All This
Look – the Braves are hunting in every way imaginable for a young stud pitcher. There are precious few in existence, so creativity has to be involved… and it’s not just Atlanta and not just Fulmer involved and not just made up in Joel Sherman’s head.
Here’s MLB Trade Rumor’s take on the phenomenon from Tuesday evening:
"The Tigers have several players known to be available, and ESPN’s Buster Olney reports (on Twitter) that the team is currently exploring trade scenarios involving multiple players as a means of clearing some salary off the books. That would mesh with a recent report from Olney’s colleague, Jerry Crasnick, in which Crasnick reported that Detroit has tried to attach second baseman Ian Kinsler to Justin Wilson in trade talks with the Brewers."
So as fanciful as you might believe these to be, you can bet that teams are trying to concoct ways to make these things acceptable to all sides.
There’s no handicapping odds on whether any such ideas will ultimately work – and this all could wait for the off-season – but expect some interesting reports out of Detroit over the next 5 days.
Next: It has happened - Dansby Optioned
Just don’t be surprised if Atlanta isn’t mentioned, too.