Who needs pitching? If you listen to most of the current MLB contenders, the answer is… virtually everybody. But what are the most likely matchups available for a trade with the Braves?
It is 11 days from the trading deadline, and the Atlanta Braves still have big decisions to make. Who to trade and what to hold out for in return?
The biggest problem that has emerged is with middle infielders – too many of them with too few spots on the bench and too few possible suitors in the market.
One thing that is rapidly becoming clear: Jaime Garcia is going somewhere. Witness this from Chris Cotillo late Wednesday:
"Lefty Jaime Garcia could move as a rental piece for a club, and his market is picking up after a strong start Sunday (7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 7 K). He has about six clubs with strong interest in him, according to a major-league source."
I actually started writing this piece about 6 weeks ago. At that point, Garcia was on fire – a 3.16 ERA and fairly dominant at times for multiple starts in a row.
Then he hit a wall. And I shelved this write-up.
Fortunately for the Braves (and for me), Garcia rebounded Sunday. But to solidify his position as a worthwhile mid-to-back rotation piece for a contender, he needs to repeat that, which makes his Friday night start against the Dodgers fairly important.
What else did I write back then?
Before his start Saturday, that ranked 19th in the majors among qualified starters and likely #1 among starters would could be available to others in July (Ivan Nova, 2.83 – but Nova is signed by the Pirates for 2 more years).
Somehow Garcia is continuing getting batters out (lower WHIP) despite walking more and striking out fewer than last year. By his own words (FOX Sports pre-game interview [early June]), Garcia is getting this done by successfully controlling the count better – getting ahead and then working the hitters with command.
Even so, those aggregate numbers are more reflective of his early work this year. Lately, the walk rate is dropping, the K rate is climbing, and opposing teams are scoring a lot less.
One other key factor seems to be that he’s keeper the ball in the park more (Saturday’s start notwithstanding) – obviously of vital importance in SunTrust Park.
But regardless of how that’s happening, he is continuing to accelerate through this season – getting better as he goes along – and the timing couldn’t be better for him – in a ‘contract year’ – or for the Braves.
So we have to pump the brakes a bit on that… but maybe he’s found the magic again
So which six teams are interested? I have identified 7 that should be. Let’s check the matchups.
New York Yankees
POSITION: 1ST PLACE (that was early June). 3RD PLACE.
ISSUES: C.C. SABATHIA, MASHAHIRO TANAKA, MICHAEL PINEDA
Sabathia has been hurting and Tanaka has been … bad. The rest have been a pleasant surprise for this new-look Bronx Bombers team, but Luis Severino and Jordan Montgomery aren’t names that you might be entirely comfortable with come playoff time.
However, with Michael Pineda now done, the decision has more-or-less been made for them: the Yankees need to add a fifth.
WHAT THEY WILL LOOK FOR
The Yankees were not looking for a ‘rental’ pitcher, but after their bold moves this week, they may have to settle for one.
WHAT THEY MIGHT OFFER
Don’t forget: this is the club that supposedly wanted the Braves to give up a ridiculous haul (said to be Mike Foltynewicz) for Brian McCann.. while also accepting McCann’s entire contract.
#1 prospect Gleyber Torres will be an “untouchable”, which will derail any thoughts of them getting an ace or any other controllable starter. OF Clint Frazier is their #2 and probably also unobtainable since OF Blake Rutherford is #3 was sent away.
Their best pitching prospect is now James Kaprielian and he had Tommy John surgery.
So probably one of LHP Justus Sheffield (too risky), RHP Chance Adams (maybe), OF Dustin Fowler (possible), or 3B Miguel Andujar (also possible).
CHANCES OF A DEAL WITH ATLANTA
Maybe. The Yankees are now the 2nd Wild Card team and still sliding. If they stabilize with the assets just acquired, then they could come calling for Garcia. If they continue to falter, then no.
Houston Astros
POSITION: 1ST PLACE
ISSUES: Multiple injuries to starters
Colin McHugh – transferred to the 60-day DL last week. Dallas Keuchel (neck) will be coming off the DL shortly. Lance McCullers – just placed on the DL (back). Charlie Morton – shut down with Lat strain).
WHAT THEY WILL LOOK FOR
Anything they can get. Oakland might be reticent to offer Sonny Gray and the Astros themselves might not be looking for a long-term solution, for they are thinking “win now.” So the rental pitchers should be in play for them, even as the media continue to suggest Gray.
Countering that, though, is the standings. They are still destroying the league and with an 15 (+/-) game lead (and 9 games on the entire American League), they can actually afford to be patient and see how the health of their pitchers plays out.
UPDATE:
Per Chris Cotillo (et al), talks are ‘heating up’ between Astros and A’s about Sonny Gray. I’m admittedly surprised the A’s would do this to themselves, but… maybe. If this happens, then the Astros would be ‘out’ for Garcia.
WHAT THEY MIGHT OFFER
A whole lot of Braves’ fans would be happy to get OF Derek Fisher, their #4 and #70 overall, who is essentially major-league ready with no place to play. Sure, OF Kyle Tucker (#2) is good, but the Astros would balk there.
Their farm has mixed reviews: #12 according to Keith Law, #3 by BaseballAmerica, but the top few guys have value.
CHANCES OF A DEAL WITH ATLANTA
Excepting Fisher, I’m not liking the matchup here. If he comes into play, the Braves might jump at it, but an additional outfielder is probably not the priority here – unless he were to be flipped for something bigger down the road.
Kansas City Royals
POSITION: 3RD PLACE
ISSUES: Reliability
The Royals have used 11 starters and can’t seem to find a reliable arm to lock down that 5th spot. Nathan Karns has now shut it down and opted for the ‘injury of the year’: Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery.
WHAT THEY WILL LOOK FOR
Rentals. Their farm system can’t support anything else at all, as they spent from a surplus to win a World Series 2 seasons ago. But this is their last hurrah for a while, so the Royals will try to pick up somebody who can help down the stretch.
WHAT THEY MIGHT OFFER
There isn’t much there. They have no one in the Top 100. Even #1 prospect 3B Hunter Dozier looks to be stalling out. So even for a rental deal, Kansas City would have to send a fairly hefty “quantity” package.
CHANCES OF A DEAL WITH ATLANTA
I’m not liking the matchup here. This is a team with one of the biggest needs, but nothing to buy with. That also extends to anyone else on the roster that they might be interested in.
Milwaukee Brewers
POSITION: 1ST PLACE
ISSUES: Injuries, performance and depth
Only 3 of their starters have more than 90 innings – Matt Garza is close – and two members of the rotation have ERAs above 4.70. Some of the replacements – Brent Suter notably have pitched well (2.91 in 21.2 innings), but the rest have not as the Brewers have employed 9 different starters.
They need what Garcia can provide, and they don’t want to blow their farm system (though many have linked them to Sonny Gray regardless).
WHAT THEY WILL LOOK FOR
The Cubs have flipped the switch and are finally playing well. The Brewers need to make a move to bolster their rotation fairly quickly. But it’s hard to guess how they’d want to proceed from here… whether a short- or long-term fix.
The answer to that question could be hinted at in the manner that this team was built – frugal acquisitions and trades.
Recall that at the beginning of the season, the only talk out of Milwaukee was the guess on ‘when Ryan Braun would be moved to the Dodgers’. Now they are buyers, and Braun isn’t going anywhere – at least not this season.
But they do need pitching help, and they will likely be shopping in the ‘clearances and close-outs’ aisle, as anything else might be too costly, given what’s in progress.
WHAT THEY MIGHT OFFER
Last Summer, trades bolstered the Milwaukee farm system, but if they believe they can win now, they’ll have to spend from that windfall to continue riding this wave much further.
Their #1 (and #13 overall) is OF Lewis Brinson, but he’s probably going nowhere. He’s the heir apparent for an outfield spot once ready and as a key piece of the Jonathan Lucroy trade, dealing Brinson away would not be a popular move… especially since he’s tearing up AAA.
The former Louisville Cardinal OF Corey Ray, drafted last year, is their #2. Pitchers Josh Hader and Luis Ortiz are next (all in the MLB Pipeline Top 55), but their first third base prospect is 7th and in High-A ball.
An aside: throwing to a 3.79 ERA in AA, Ortiz actually out-dueled Mike Soroka last night (allowing 1 hit over 6 innings with 6K and 0 walks). Mississippi won after he was removed from the game.
That said, all of these are reasons for not doing much at the deadline – they need these players for their future beyond 2017… so it’s a thin tightrope to walk, and walk it they must unless the management and ownership decides to chuck the plan and ‘go for it’.
CHANCES OF A DEAL WITH ATLANTA
I don’t see Ray being a real possibility as I don’t expect the Brewers to be that desperate. Would Coppy be satisfied with Ortiz and a lesser prospect? Hard to say. But if Ray IS offered… Garcia’s going to Milwaukee before they can change their mind
Cleveland Indians
POSITION: 1ST PLACE AND BARELY HOLDING
ISSUES: Injuries and performance
They’ve got 5 starters identified, but two of them (Trevor Bauer and Josh Tomlin) haven’t been pitching very well, with ERA’s over 5.50.
Still, their need is less than most and the Indians could wait until the last minute of the July 31 deadline to make a decision.
WHAT THEY WILL LOOK FOR
Garcia would fit perfectly as a back-ender rental if they wanted to replace Bauer or Tomlin.
WHAT THEY MIGHT OFFER
Well it’s certainly not going to be top Catching prospect Francisco Mejia. Unfortunately, there’s not a lot to like beyond him. Triston McKenzie is a RHP Top 50 prospect (#47), but he’s a long way off in High A ball. Yandy Diaz is a Cuban OF/3B who is raking in AAA, but is still a bit of a wild card. Bobby Bradley is hitting AA dingers, but not a lot else.
CHANCES OF A DEAL WITH ATLANTA
Not looking like a great fit unless there’s somebody special that a scout has spotted.
Minnesota Twins
POSITION: 2ND PLACE
ISSUES: Injuries and performance. Sound familiar?
Here’s another team that has been scrambling for starters – having used 11. Only old friend Ervin Santana has been reliable, logging 126 innings during a stellar season (2.99 ERA).
So yeah – they need multiple starters. I couldn’t completely rule out them wanting Garcia AND Dickey. Or Garcia and Teheran, for that matter.
WHAT THEY WILL LOOK FOR
I still think Minnesota is surprised to be where they are, but at the same time, Cleveland and Kansas City have enough issues that even a minor upgrade could push them to the front.
Sonny Gray has been mentioned for them… not sure if they want to go that far… but for certain, at least one rental would make sense – even if they did go “All In” for Gray, who they’d still have for 2 more seasons.
WHAT THEY MIGHT OFFER
It’s not going to be SS Nick Gordon, but I would target LHP Stephen Gonsalves, currently with the AA Chattanooga Lookouts. He’s a #77 overall prospect, and while doesn’t appear to have the kind of ‘stuff’ to be a frontline starter, he’s striking out enough (82 in 69 innings) and not walking enough (14) to be an asset in the middle of a rotation (0.99 WHIP, 2.75 ERA).
CHANCES OF A DEAL WITH ATLANTA
Fair to good. This depends on how the teams rates their chances. It would really take 2 pitchers to get them there and Garcia would only be one. I don’t see that they have the farm to get Gray… or even Teheran. They might have to settle for Garcia alone.
Seattle Mariners
POSITION: 2ND PLACE, but a mile behind Houston
ISSUES: Injuries and performance. Rinse and repeat.
Oh why did they trade away Taijuan Walker?? Only a single starting pitcher – and there have been thirteen of them – has an ERA under 4.20 while pitching more than 4 innings.
Seattle doesn’t need Garcia. They need a rotation.
WHAT THEY WILL LOOK FOR
This is another team in need of multiple starters, so rentals/contracts/walk-ons from the bleachers… you name it. And this is Jerry DiPoto’s team, so I expect he’s calling everybody.
WHAT THEY MIGHT OFFER
Well here’s the problem. They have a clear #1, and that’s 2016 draftee OF Kyle Lewis. Their next is Tyler O’Neill whose stock has fallen severely. Others are having poorish seasons. Do we want Max Povse back?
UPDATE: As this was being posted…
Confirmed: #Marlins sending David Phelps to #Marliners for Hernandez, Miller, Schiradli and Pablo Lopez. Four players in return to MIA
— Joe Frisaro (@JoeFrisaro) July 20, 2017
Four players for a reliever? That’s because they aren’t very good. Seattle still needs a starter, though.
CHANCES OF A DEAL WITH ATLANTA
Bleak – again, unless there’s a hidden gem in their system. With all the trades DiPoto has made, he’s not done his farm system a lot of favors. Add on top of that performance issues with those he has retained, and it’s a combination that will make it difficult for Seattle to do much of anything at the deadline.
Summary
Here’s the order I rate the likelihood of a deal:
- Houston – 30% (best trade fit)
- Yankees – 25%
- Milwaukee – 15%
- Minnesota – 15%
- Seattle – 5%
- Cleveland – 3%
- Kansas City – 2%
Somebody else? That remaining 5% I left off… which covers Colorado, the Cubs, and Texas. Maybe the Angels, too.
Next: It's all about the Dodgers
Jaime Garcia will be traded. But where and for how much? All eyes will be on him Friday night at Dodger Stadium to try and decide that.