Atlanta Braves Trade Watch: run-down on MLB buyer/seller status

As we’ve already mused in this space, timing is everything.  With 16 days to go until the non-waiver trade deadline, here’s the current look at the buyers, the sellers, and their key needs/pieces.

How far should the Atlanta Braves go in trade talks?  So far this week, all indications are that they probably did enough to get Jose Quintana from the White Sox, but the Sox seemed to simply want a different set of players.  Good luck… sometimes the trades you don’t make work out, too.

In the meantime, here’s the noise that we’re seeing as all 30 teams make their 2017 buy-or-sell calls:

NL EAST

• Washington.  STATUS:  Buyer.  NEEDS:  Bullpen.  No changes, but more injuries as starter Joe Ross is out indefinitely (elbow sprain… uh oh).  No replacement named thus far.  Said to be in on Brad Hand (San Diego).  Probably also begging the Marlins for somebody.  Meanwhile, Jayson Werth had a setback (or at least a slowdown) and Trea Turner is still out.  They are still looking like a team just one more key injury away from disaster.

UPDATE:  Joe Ross is done – Tommy John surgery next Wednesday.

• Atlanta.  STATUS:  Buyer/Seller.  NEEDS:  Starting Pitching, bullpen.  I’m ready!
  
• Miami.  STATUS:  Limited Fire Sale?  AVAILABLE:  Anyone with an extended contract.  But don’t expect them to eat a lot of money, either.  May be best source of bullpen help for Washington.  David Phelps and A.J. Ramos are getting the most buzz, currently.  Their situation is complicated by negotiations for the sale of the team… and the Commisoner’s watch.
• Mets.  STATUS:  SELLER (NEW).  AVAILABLE:  veterans with expiring contracts.  That means Jose Reyes (Good Luck With That), Neil Walker (GLWT), Lucas Duda (GLWT) Curtis Granderson (maybe), Jay Bruce (maybe).  They don’t want to trade from their core… but guess what they will be asked about?
• Philadelphia.  STATUS:  Buyer??  NEEDS:  everything.  They really want Christian Yelich from the Marlins and seem willing to take some bad-ish money from them to get him.  But not “Giancarlo Stanton contract bad”.

NL CENTRAL

• Milwaukee.  STATUS: Buyer. NEEDS: Starter, Reliever. Said to be in on Brad Hand (yes, this is a common theme this week, along with probably 3 members of the Padres rotation).  Have a big lead (5.5 games) thanks to a great finish before the break, but have to be spooked by the Cubs.
• Cubs.  STATUS: Buyer (duh). NEEDS: Starter, Reliever. Yes, despite getting Quintana this week, they are apparently now trying to crush the market and get Sonny Gray, too.  Initially, my thinking was ‘but they have just trashed their farm’ – until realizing that Kyle Schwarber, Javier Baez and Ian Happ are still on their team with Jeimer Candelario the new – but blocked – #1 prospect.
• Cardinals.  STATUS: Limbo.  NEEDS:  Middle of order hitter.  Actually, that’s not all they need, but the main question now – and they’ve just done a front office shake-up – is ‘where do they go from here?’  As a note, the Braves just passed them in the standings last night.
• Pittsburgh.  STATUS:  Seller.  AVAILABLE:  Andrew McCutchen.  That said, everybody wants Gerrit Cole, who has 2 more years of control after 2017.  Jon Morosi says he’s available… for a big price.
• Reds.    STATUS:  Seller.  AVAILABLE:  Zack Cozart?  Raisel Iglesias?  Those are the headliners, but also some additional pitching (Feldman and Storen). That’s the result of failing negotiations on a Cozart extension and the thought that perhaps teams could ‘blow them away’ with an offer for reliever Iglesias.

AL WEST

• Dodgers.  STATUS:  Buyers.  NEEDS:  Bullpen help.  The Orioles’ Zach Britton is a target of theirs.  So is Brad Hand, but the Padres are holding him for ranson at this point.
• Arizona.  STATUS:  ‘Aggressive’ Buyers.  NEEDS: you might have thought ‘pitching‘, and that’s probably true, but they seem to want a bat also, and are starting to kick the tires with Detroit about J.D. Martinez.  Arizona has been in a swoon  and may be feeling the pressure.
• Colorado.  STATUS: Limbo.  NEEDS:  starts and ends with pitching, but suddenly the Rockies are fading while the Dodgers have roared by them.  They are still the second Wild Card team, but how much will they actually be willing to do?
• San Diego.  STATUS: Sellers.  AVAILABLE: most of the rotation, but other than that, it’s less than you’d expect.  They still have a bunch of young talent and Rule 5 guys that they’d like to keep.  Otherwise a lot of pitching is available, but they are trying for a high price.  A few might go just prior to the deadline at lower rates, though:  it’s the only thing that makes sense for them.
• San Francisco.  STATUS: Sellers. AVAILABLE: Nobody?  The Giants are probably about as shocked about how their season has progressed as anyone, and seems in a vapor-lock about what to do.  Mark Melancon might have been a good ‘sell’ piece, but he’s still hurt.  Johnny Cueto can be had but with his opt-out at years’ end, that creates an impossible means of valuing him… and he might miss his next start, to boot.

How the Other Half is Looking

AL EAST

• Boston.  STATUS:  Buyers.  NEEDS:  Third base, bullpen.  Their world rocked this week with the release of the Kung Fu Panda, committing them to a $50 million payoff of his deal.  Other than that, things have turned around nicely for the Red Sox, so they should be in good shape to patch those minor holes… though perhaps starting pitching isn’t being ruled out either.
• Yankees.  STATUS: Limbo.  NEEDS:  Pitching, first base.  In stark contrast to the Red Sox, the Yankees are in a virtual freefall, setting low-water marks for bad play over the past month and threatening to fall out of their Wild Card chair.  In fact, the only reason they haven’t (yet) is that the Twins and Royals are both on longer current losing skids.

But it’s because the Yankees are afraid that their team had over-achieved in the Spring and that this slide was expected that puts them in this limbo.  Unless they can prove otherwise – soon – Brian Cashman may be forced to admit that they aren’t quite ready for prime time this year.  Note:  Oakland represents a ‘one stop shopping’ opportunity for them.

• Tampa Bay. STATUS:  Standing pat.  NEEDS: Some pitching, but they probably will try to resolve this internally.
• Baltimore.  STATUS:  Limbo. Would probably prefer to sell, but Peter Angelos.  AVAILABLE:  relievers Zach Britton and Mychal Givens.
• Toronto.  STATUS: Limbo.  NEEDS/AVAILABLE:  Pitching, second base.  The Blue Jays are perhaps the biggest enigma in all of baseball.  5 games under .500 and 4 back of the last Wild Card spot.  Before the deadline they will face Detroit (won Friday night), Boston, Cleveland, Oakland, and the Angels.

If they manage to do well in the next 9 games, look for the Jays to become a “Buy” team.  If not, a tear-it-all-down fire sale could ensue.  If “selling”, the available players could become an avalanche.

AL CENTRAL

• Cleveland.  STATUS:  Buyers.  NEEDS:  The rotation.  That wasn’t expected, but hinges now on Danny Salazar’s health.  Suspicion is that they will at least need to pick up somebody for depth, perhaps from Atlanta, perhaps San Diego.

UPDATE: Indians “evaluating” Sonny Gray (after he shut them down last night).

• Minnesota.  STATUS:  Buyers.  NEEDS:  Bullpen help.  Here’s a team a bit ahead of its own time, probably not expecting to be on the cusp of a wild Card spot this season.  They need pitching, but of the young, controllable sort and it’s not likely to be available in their price range.  Still, they claim to be open to “spending aggressively” toward that end.  We’ll see, but their own Bartolo Colon experiment has not started well.

UPDATE:  I’m not sure I believe this, but Bart is starting for them on Tuesday.

• Kansas City.  STATUS:  Buyers.  NEEDS:  Pitching (back end rotation), leadoff hitter or 2nd base, maybe an outfielder.  All of this was discussed in much more detail here, particularly as it could impact the Braves.

UPDATE:  Confirming need of ‘rental’ pitcher as Nate Karns will have thoracic outlet syndrome surgery next week.  He’s done for 2017.

• Detroit.  STATUS: Sellers. AVAILABLE: all extended contracts would be discussed, plus J.D. Martinez.  This will be highly challenging for them, but not completely out of the question.
• White Sox.  STATUS: Sellers. AVAILABLE: Everybody?  The most likely is Todd Frazier (to Boston) and perhaps Avisail Garcia.  David Robertson will probably be dealt, but the question here involves price – and it’s likely that somebody (whether the Nats or Dodgers or Boston or somebody) will pay it.

AL WEST

• Oakland.  STATUS: Sellers. AVAILABLE: it all starts with Sonny Gray.  I’m deliberately putting the A’s ahead in this division because this is the next key cog in the 2017 trade market.

There are a lot of people thinking that perhaps he won’t be moved as GMs mull his price vs his perceived durability (our Fred Owens thinks he’s a serious injury risk).  That’s understandable.

However, Billy Beane was probably doing a fist pump last night as Gray went out and silenced the Cleveland Indians over 6 innings of 2 hit shutout ball.  As I’ve been on record saying before, he’s coming back strong from injury last season and Beane will not risk waiting any longer.  I believe Gray will be traded by July 31st.  Maybe even sooner.

Susan Slusser of the A’s beat reported that the Astros, Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Blue Jays were all in attendance for Gray’s start… though it’s possible that there was other scouting going on.

UPDATE:  Despite a sweep of the Indians this weekend… it’s rebuild time!

• Houston.  STATUS:  Buyers.  NEEDS:  Pitching, but perhaps more ‘pitching depth’ if some of their starters can come back strong.  For that reason, the Astros could wait until the last minute before jumping into the pool, and they could go for anything from a Padres’ cast off to … well, maybe Julio Teheran more than Sonny Gray.  Oakland is willing to trade with anybody – even in division – but Gray’s price would totally wipe their farm system.

UPDATE:

• Texas.  Leaning toward Sellers but looking for controllable players too?  AVAILABLE:  Jonathan Lucroy, and according to Jerry Crasnick of ESPN this morning, Yu Darvish and Cole Hamels could both be in play now.  Jurrickson Profar could also be attractive as a ‘scenery change’ guy, but likely not an a contender asset piece.

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Darvish is a rental, but Hamels is still owed $23.5 million in 2018 and $20 million for 2019 (or a $6 million buyout)… so close to $39 million total counting this year.  All that, but how attractive are those pieces… really?

• Angels.  STATUS:  Buyers – but are they even able?  NEEDS:  Starting Pitching due to injuries.  But they have no farm system!  They’ve got Mike Trout back this weekend, which should be the best acquisition short of the return of Freddie Freeman to Atlanta, but short of picking up a Padres’ starter from the scrap heap, it’s hard to see what more they can do.  The Angels like Dee Gordon, but so do the Royals and Blue Jays, though Miami is unwilling to eat money on that contract, so it’s possible nobody gets him.
• Seattle.  STATUS:  Buyers.  NEEDS:  Bullpen, starting pitching.  Add them to the Brad Hand sweepstakes, a contest that’s getting a bizarre amount of action.  Don’t forget that Jerry DiPoto is running this club now and he’s traded more than anyone else since taking those reins.  He’d buy and sell his own mother… and probably has.

Next: Freeman Still in Beast Mode

So that’s the way it is:  Saturday, July 15th, 2017.  We’ll update this as time marches through the next 16 days.