The second half begins Friday and Atlanta Braves fans are looking forward to new faces. Those new faces will mean old faces depart but who do we trade where and for what?
The Atlanta Braves season seemed scripted pretty well. They’d rely on veteran pitchers until the deadline, trade then away and bring up some of the younger arms. Veteran hitters would solidify the lineup while Ozzie Albies and others would get a look in August and September. So much for scripts.
Those setbacks don’t mean the traded deadline will be boring; just different.
The trades ahead
A few days ago Alan looked at the trade market. I’m not going rehash all of that but things have changed a bit.
The Cubs stole Jose Quintana from the White Sox. I read elsewhere that it was a blockbuster deal because:
- Eloy Jimenez was somehow the same as Ronald Acuna; he’s not. He’s playing in low A ball and while he’s hit the ball hard he’s in low A.
- Dylan Cease is now on a par with Mike Soroka. He’s not. Cease is in high A and while he strikes out a bunch of batters, he walks a bunch as well. That’s no mean feat in A ball when everyone is swinging at anything close.
- They also got two low A players with power. . . that’s low A. . .
The Braves weren’t in love with Quintana anyway but the Pale Hose blinked; back to the Braves.
With the Rays in the hunt Chris Archer isn’t going anywhere. Sonny Gray just became more expensive and the Jays say Marcus Stroman is out of the question, at least for now. Thus the top of the rotation pitching cupboard suddenly became bare.
That makes the hunt for such an arm likely to happen this winter. Onward towards the deadline fellow Braves travelers. The players we’d like to trade – or I believe we can/should trade – are: Matt Adams, Brandon Phillips and maybe some bullpen pieces. The question is, where do they fit?
Brandon Phillips to the Rays
The Rays are in the AL wild card hunt and since trading Logan Forsythe, second base offense hasn’t been great. Brad Miller is their primary answer and his .209/.355/.338/.693 line is not impressive.
BP would be better and inexpensive at about $400K remaining, always a big concern for the Rays
Atlanta Braves
Phillips wouldn’t bring a big return but he would allow Ozzie Albies to move into his new home early. Albies and Ender Inciarte at the top of the lineup changes the dynamic, energizes the crowd and gives other teams a new look.
I love BP and what he’s done so far, but this is about moving forward and getting ready for next year. Trading Phillips would cost the Braves $500K and means the only issue with either is convincing BP to agree.
Matt Adams to the Yankees
I’ve said this a few time, Adams makes perfect sense for the Yanks. His left-handed power plays in Yankee stadium and he’s a genuine first baseman. The Yankees acquired Garrett Cooper from the Brewers today and he’s tearing up AAA so they may not be as eager as they could be. Adams low-cost, retainability and experience might be enough for a small return.
I understand the love of Adams among fans but he will regress. He’s never been this kind of hitter in his career and while sometimes things fall into place for good with a change of scenery, usually they do not. He might be Jose Bautista but he could also be Chris Johnson
Adding Arodys Vizcaino might be enough to grab one of their top 20 prospects like Estevan Florial. I know many drool over the idea of Adams and Freddie Freeman in the same lineup but I might have an answer for that as well.
Austin Riley, Luiz Gohara, Sean Kazmar, Brett Cumberland and Braxton Davidson to Toronto for Troy Tulowitzki, Mike Ohlman and $20M
The Blue Jays have to rebuild/retool/re-something. They are old and while they have a solid core they need to get younger. They need pitching and to clear some salary. Trading Tulo would also allow the Jays to extend Josh Donaldson rather than lose him to free agency.
Troy Tulowitzki is a genuine power bat. He’s been injured a lot in his career and at 32 should not be playing shortstop, particularly on turf. A move to third base would extend his career and getting him off turf would reduce his probability of injury.
Mike Ohlman adds a catching prospect that’s close to major league ready .
Why Tulo?
There’s no doubt Tulo could play third and when healthy he’s been a 25 homer bat and a 2.5 fWAR player. Having him there with Dansby Swanson, Albies and Freeman would provide a potent offensive and defensive infield.
His contract is big but not bad. He’ll earn about $69M over the next 3 1/2 years – $10M left this season, $20M in 2018 and 2019, $14M in 2020 – with a $15M club option in 2012 or a $4M buyout. If he was a free agent today he’d easily get that kind of money
If the Jays are going to take back $20M they need to get value in return. Luiz Gohara is a top 100 prospect, Austin Riley is our #12, Brett Cumberland gives them a catching prospect, Braxton Davidson a 1B/DH option and Sean Kazmar a shortstop for today.
That’s a wrap
Taking Tulo’s contract gives the Braves stability, power and defense through 2021 at a good price. It allows Freddie to move from third where he might be average, back to first where we know he’s a top five player and makes the rest of the infield better.
Ohlman and Florial add prospects that fill needs down the line. I’m not in love with Florial, it could be any good prospect from the Yankee system that makes the Adams package more attractive. That probably means another reliever ready now.
I see no market at all for either corner outfielder at the deadline when you consider the other names who may be available. Jon Paul Morosi lists these and there may be more; J.D. Martinez, Melky Cabrera, Seth Smith, Jay Bruce, Curtis Granderson, Jose Bautista, Randal Grichuk, Rajai Davis, Matt Joyce, Daniel Nava, Hunter Pence.
The wheels will start turning more quickly now and when things happen we’ll be sure to give you our Take.