WASHINGTON, DC – JUNE 14: Brandon Phillips #4 of the Atlanta Braves celebrates with Matt Adams #18 after a 13-2 victory against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on June 14, 2017 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)
Buyers or sellers? Rebuild or Re-tool? Tank or go for it? These are the decisions being across the baseball, and there are a lot of industry pundits trying to figure out how it going to go. We’re seeing some trends, too.
I noted yesterday that the Atlanta Braves have an awful lot of surplus infielders that are about to hit the active roster. In an ideal world, it will all work itself out in a nice and orderly manner.
But this isn’t MLB The Show, eBay or a local garage sale. Transactions are a bit trickier. It fact, the whole sport seems to be undergoing a transition – one that may ultimately end up changing how – and when – players are acquired.
Wrapped up in all of that is that the Braves will need to make some decisions on how best to turn their trade assets into quality future contributors. That could also involve some players – like Julio Teheran – that were not previously expected to be available.
In the meantime, here’s some of the things I’m seeing from around the league.
The Ins and Outs
Peter Gammons has some … let’s say ‘odd takes’… from time to time, but the piece he published last Friday has a lot of ring of truth to it. Let’s start there:
"“This is the reality: there are a lot more sellers than buyers right now,” said one club personnel director [last] Wednesday."
This makes sense for now… buyers don’t want to tip their hands yet, but they need to know what’s in the catalog, and that’s why the sellers need to declare their wares first.
In addition, there are several teams still in limbo:
- Colorado – in the wild card today, but 3-7 over their last ten, so are they in or out?
- Cubs/Cardinals – tied, but 7.5 games back of the Rockies
- Twins – close in both their division and in the Wild Card, but ‘buying big’ isn’t their style
- KC – do they make one more run?
- Angels? Rangers? Mariners? In or out?
- Blue Jays? Probably out, but uncertain whether to declare a Fire Sale
The Yankees have declared that they are ‘in’, but only under narrowly-defined parameters: they don’t want the ‘quick fix’… they are building for the future and want controllable talent.
"Cashman labeled the Yankees as “careful buyers,” with the implication being that the team will strive to improve its playoff hopes in 2017 without significantly mortgaging its future by trading away its very best minor leaguers."
That is also the Braves’ stated position, as Dave O’Brien reports:
"“We have a tough [schedule] stretch coming, but it’s exciting to see what could happen,” Braves general manager John Coppolella said. “We search every day to make this team better for the short- and long-term.” So, will the Braves be buyers or sellers before the trade deadline? They won’t divulge plans, but this observer’s answer to that question is yes."
CHICAGO, IL – JUNE 25: Starting pitcher Sonny Gray #54 of the Oakland Athletics delivers the ball against the Chicago White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field on June 25, 2017 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
The New Paradigm
This kind of thinking seems to be the new philosophy for the league. The ‘rental trade’ or ‘quick fix’ is now passe, the ‘controllable asset’ is trending.
In years’ part, the elite “rental guys” have been traded freely at the trade deadline (David Price, Yoenis Cespedes, Cole Hamels, Troy Tulowitzki, Johnny Cueto in 2015; Jonathan Lucroy, Rich Hill, Andrew Miller, Aroldis Chapman in 2016).
That could still happen this year, but it’s certainly neither the expectation nor the goal for many organizations.
There will always be a market for some rental guys. For example, Brandon Phillips is going to be so cheap as to make his acquisition a no-brainer for somebody, but he’s an exceptional case.
It had been that you could consider getting a guy like David Price either at mid-season as a rental with a chance for an extension or just wait for the off-season and compete for his services as a free agent.
Now teams are thinking much more about the long-term only… hence why the Braves are said to be scouting frontline starters now – there may not be a chance to get the better controllable guys in the off-season.
Driving the Point Home
Here’s an illustration of what I think is going on:
Let’s say you are in need of a car. You find a deal that gets you a nice car, but you can only have it for six months… at a price you’ll still be paying for over the next 2 years. And after the six months, you can’t even sell it – it’s simply no longer yours.
Wouldn’t you rather get a vehicle you can keep for 3-5 years… for a cost only marginally higher? That’s more or less what’s going on here: teams have figured out how to do the math.
New vs. Used Car Prices
Back to Peter Gammons, quoting that same personnel director from before:
"“What Boston traded for Chris Sale isn’t going to be traded because Sale was unique—arguably the best pitcher in the league, affordable, under 30 years old, and the Red Sox had five really good position regulars between 22 and 26. Is someone willing to pay for [Sonny] Gray or Jose Quintana what the Royals were willing to pay for Johnny Cueto and Ben Zobrist when they had their window to win their first world series in 30 years? I don’t think so.”"
What teams will have to mutually decide upon is the price of years vs. talent. Chris Sale’s deal represents the Gold Standard to which all deals this Summer will be measured against – since he brought years AND elite talent.
Most teams simply don’t even have the kind of premium resources (Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech and 2 others) to have been competitive with the Red Sox for Sale, but that should not be the same price level for a Sonny Gray or Jose Quintana.
The 2017 price level will be determined by a lot of behind-the-scenes negotiations between now and July 31st. However, given the supplies and the demands, I expect the prices will end up higher than perhaps expected.
Who is Really Available?
Higher prices? Why is that? Because there’s already noises being made (possibly for reasons of negotiation, possibly because it’s true) that some players – pitchers especially – may not come on the market at all this Summer:
More from Tomahawk Take
- Atlanta Braves 2012 Prospect Review: Joey Terdoslavich
- Braves News: Braves sign Fuentes, Andruw’s HOF candidacy, more
- The Weakest Braves Homers Since 2015
- Atlanta Braves Sign Joshua Fuentes to Minor League Deal
- Braves News: New Year’s Eve comes with several questions about the 2023 Braves
Gerrit Cole – Pirates GM Neal Huntington is recently quoted saying “We haven’t had a real conversation about Gerrit, and I don’t see us doing so”
Jon Heyman is getting an idea of just how high:
"There are said to be big gaps in Chicago’s talks with both the Astros and Yankees [for Quintana]…Astros top pitching prospect Francis Martes and outfielder Kyle Tucker…[or] in Yankees talks top infield prospect Gleyber Torres or top outfielder prospect Clint Frazier as the headliner in a package of prospects."
But guess what? There will be buyers! The Cubs are also looking for… wait for it… “controllable young arms“.
Yes, the new paradigm.
Full Circle
So why do I think teams will be seriously asking the Atlanta Braves about Julio Teheran? Price (less than the above!) and years of control for decent performance. It’s what everybody wants – no quick fixes: year-to-year sustainable team performance.
What about R.A. Dickey, Jaime Garcia? Both are Rentals (though Dickey has an option year, his age relegates him to a secondary or even tertiary option for most). There may be deals to be had here, but they will likely happen very late in the trading season, and without substantial return.
Next: May I have the envelope, please?
But aside from “interest”, why do I think there’s a good chance Teheran will be dealt this Summer? Two reasons: excellent numbers away from SunTrust Park, and Coppy may smell an opportunity to finish off the rebuild by undercutting the White Sox and others. The timing could be right.