Atlanta Braves’ Summer trade plans going up in smoke?

How much things have changed in the past 2 weeks?  Then it was sketchy pitching… decent batting… but a team not really finding its stride.  That’s a recipe for a ‘Summer Seller’.  But now…

Between June 5 and June 11, the Atlanta Braves lost 5 out of 8 games in a rare pair of 4 game series’ vs. the Phillies and Mets.  This dropped the club to 27-35.

Since that date, the Braves are 8-3… second best in the National League.  That’s despite opponents including Washington and (now) Milwaukee.  Heck, even the Marlins have gone 6-4 in that time, and you know where 2 of their losses came from.

35-38.  Just 3 games south of .500 now.  Huh.

Now I’m not about to sit here and pretend that Atlanta now has a shot at an NL Wild Card (they are 10½ games back today) or even the division (9) – and those numbers will spark some debate by themselves (we’ll get to that) – but external events and this team’s play could be tying John Coppolella’s hands and plans as we enter the MLB Trade Season.

Here’s What’s Happening

The trade market is now in a state of flux.  Here’s just a few reasons:

• Jaime Garcia.  I had an entire post nearly written about his possible landing spots in a trade – and indeed, the Braves have received inquiries on him and others.  But all he’s done in his past 2 starts is give up 12 earned runs in 10 innings, raising his ERA by 0.87 in the space of 6 days.
• The Tampa Bay Rays.  Coppy is still coveting Chris Archer, right?  Well if that’s ever gonna happen, then it will be during the next off-season, as the Rays are turning into buyers.  They are heavily into talks to obtain Adeiny Hechavarria from the Marlins.  And why not?  If the season ended today, the Rays would host the Wild Card game.
• The Kansas City Royals.  Since April, there’s be a death watch on this club with vultures circling Kauffman Stadium for tasty trade morsels. But Kansas City is suddenly on the prowl, and their next victim – the 37-34 Twins – are in the crosshairs.
• Meanwhile, the New York Yankees have cut struggling 1B/DH Chris Carter, promoting Tyler Austin… at least temporarily.  That might have been an obvious trade opportunity for Coppy, vis-a-vis Matt Adams.
• Freddie Freeman.  This requires some additional discussion…

An Aside – a Lesson in Contrasts

You may not be entirely aware of this story out of New York, but here it is in a nutshell:

The Mets want Asdrubal Cabrera to slide over the third base…or second.  Anything but shortstop.  This was asked some time ago.  However, Cabrera has reportedly set a price for changing positions – that the Mets pick up his contract option for 2018.

The Mets are now 32-41 and in a near free-fall.  Cabrera (31½ years old) probably sees a position change as diminishing his value for his pending free agency.

Both of those are likely factoring into this squabble, but the upshot is this:  his team needs him to change positions, Cabrera is refusing, and so now he wants to leave.

The Contrast…

So here in Atlanta we see a star player who sees that his replacement is routinely killing baseballs and he is wondering “How can we keep that guy’s bat in the lineup?”  I will add “and keep him from being traded away”.

With that thought firmly in mind, Freeman gets creative and volunteers to try third base to do so… probably ahead of schedule, no less.

Now you see the difference between a “team” and a bunch of players named on a lineup card.  But even that comes with implications…

Back on Topic

So now the Rays are not sellers.  Now the Royals may not be sellers.

Now Jaime Garcia might not fetch the kind of premium price that could have happened two weeks ago.  Now Matt Adams – who isn’t simply a rental option, either – could be sticking around for a bit since Freeman pretty much pulled a coup d’état in personally yanking Adams off the table.

So what kind of trades can Coppy pursue now??

Changing Gears

There are still opportunities… but perhaps not the ones originally envisioned:

• Jason Motte – drawing interest
• Brandon Phillips – drawing interest
• Kansas City… could they use Nick Markakis?  Curiously, he’d replace Jorge Bonifacio… yes, the brother of you-know-who.
• Jim Johnson.  Still needs to pitch a little better, but that’s at least a possibility, particularly as Toronto closer Roberto Osuna is on the shelf indefinitely.
• R.A. Dickey.  Strangely enough, as Garcia’s pitching has run into trouble in the past 2 outings, Dickey’s has suddenly improved.  Okay, yes:  that was against the Phillies and Giants; he was also shelled by Washington, but that happens to a lot of people.  Still, he could draw some interest.
• International signing money.  Teams need it.  The Braves have quite a bit available.  Trade opportunity… possibly in package deals around July 2nd.

So there are still some possibilities out there, though perhaps not the ones envisioned closer to the beginning of this month.

The Elephant in the Room

Okay, so many of you are probably thinking “Why the             are the Braves even considering keeping Adams around?  He’s streaky and this would be the perfect ‘sell high’ opportunity for a non-playoff team!”

All that is true.  And if this were entirely about 2017, then I would not have an argument to use against you.

Matt Adams is 28 years and 9 months old.  He is actually still under team control through next season (his last arbitration year is coming up – that could be an interesting number), so 2018 is actually in play here.

His performance is not entirely unprecedented – though that .573 slugging percentage certainly is.

The Cardinals only gave Adams a single “full time” year:  2014.  That included 142 games and 563 PA’s for a .288/.321/.457/.779 slash line, including a 116 wRC+ and 2.1 fWAR score.

In the last 30 days, he’s killed those numbers:  .294/.355/.624/.979 (145 wRC+).  The BABIP crowd can’t even call him lucky since that number is .293.

The most obvious drop-off for Adams is against lefty pitching:  .091 on the road; .263 at home.  But that’s been seen only rarely by the Braves this season.

Because…Reasons

Here’s why Freeman and the Braves should try this third base experiment:

• Freeman has lots of ‘advice’ resources to fall back on, whether they be Ron Washington, Terry Pendleton, or Chipper Jones.
• Third base was considered to be a trade need for the team, whether this July or during the off-season.
• You would have to believe that when Freeman discussed this position change with Coppy and Brian Snitker, trade options were discussed, including active targets.  Yet this change is going to happen anyway.
• Under the mantra of “you’ll never know unless you try it”, the Braves need to find out if Freeman can actually play a passable third base before the off-season.
• If he can, then boom:  he stays there, Adams stays at first, the team has an offense that could match up against anybody and – most importantly – Coppy saves his farm assets for trades to improve other positions.
• If he can’t, then the Braves could still trade Adams during the off-season if they see fit to do so… with the potential of more trading partners at that time…. assuming Adams continues to rake.

Next: Defense Wins the Day

So all of that to say this:  Coppy may have to change his approach and his plans, but none of the events from the past 2 weeks should slow him down in the pursuit of a quality team that’s ready to compete in 2018.