Atlanta Braves Draft Day Open Thread

It’s time for the MLB’s annual rule four amateur draft.  I’ll keep this thread open for your comments on the draft as it progresses through the first two rounds.

The mock draft season is history, now it’s time for teams to pay their money and make their choices.If you’ve read mocks from other sites you’ll see that the punditry has the Atlanta Braves circling the players widely considered in the top five.

Consensus opinion is that their isn’t a consensus opinion. Hunter Greene is supposed to be the best available player in the draft by most but he would be the first high school player ever taken one-one in draft history. Maybe the Twins do that maybe they don’t but the odds of Greene falling to the Braves are slim and none and I just saw Slim ride out-of-town.

The latest news from the third stool

Folks who spent time in the military will understand that heading, perhaps they’ll explain it to you.

The other names loudly spoken and often are (in no particular order) Austin Beck HS OF, McKenzie Gore college LHP, Royce Lewis Inf/OF, Brendan McKay college LHP, Kyle Wright College RHP.

This morning MLBPipeline’s Jim Callas and Jonathan Mayo went off-board suggesting that the Braves would surprise everyone by choosing Keston Hiura and OF/2B out of UC Irvine. Their rationale being that the Braves would try to stretch their draft pool by cutting a pre-draft, under-slot deal for Hiura – or others I’ll mention is a minute – to give them late round flexibility. They did this last year with Ian Anderson and picked up Joey Wentz and Kyle Muller at 40 and 44.

Atlanta Braves

If the Braves do that this year they pick up someone like Tristan Beck who had an injury that might make him less attractive to some clubs. We’ve seen their willingness to do this with the Kolby Allard selection among others.

This morning’s Baseball America pick ($$) in Kyle Wright while Tyler Conway at Bleacher Report opts for Royce Lewis and CBS Sports’ Dayn Perry comes out of left field  – literally – with Jeren Kendall a strikeout prone college outfielder. You’ve probably been around all the mocks already so I won;t bore you with more from the usual sources.

Tomahawk Take’s Take

Earlier today Ben posted his final mock draft with the return of a name from an earlier Mock – Jordan Adell – as his first round prediction and an encore performance from last week by Tristan Beck as his round two prognostication. In case you’ve forgotten here are Ben’s picks from the previous Mocks on TT.

The mock number is hyperlinked in case you want to go back and read again.

You can see that some of the names commonly seen outside appear in Ben’s first round list as well. Two of his not so well-known first round choices – Pratto and Adell – below slot signing options.

A couple of my choices

I’m not as informed at Ben and base my ideas on what I read, see and the Braves historic picks and what John Coppolella has said when asked about the draft this spring.  A quick reminder that should not be needed; baseball teams do not draft for current need.

I’ve written many times that the Braves draft philosophy goes back to the days of Paul Snyder and says that they will draft pitching and trade for everything else. An everyday player is the choice if he is clearly better than the best available pitcher.

Coppy’s said that there are multiple college guys as well as prep guys on his list but will take the “best player on the board.”  We would all do well to remember that the last statement means, “the best payer on the board from the Braves point of view based on their internal metrics, view of the payer as a person, and how he fits into the future plans.

That said since 2015 the Braves have typically drafted prep arms early turning to everyday players and college senior signs late. Bearing in mind the post a week or so ago saying the Braves were leaning towards a bat I’d come down in the Royce Lewis camp.

The BA scouting report calls him “him arguably the best position player prospect in this year’s class.”  If they go below slot those things scream Sam Carlson for a below slot choice at five.

Carlson is a RHP from the frozen north of Burnsville, Minnesota. He fits the Braves MO of liking prep pitchers from the north with fewer innings on their arms. According to BA he’s improved his strength and flexibility this offseason after being embarrassed during USA Baseball 4o man trials and the results of his efforts are clear.

His low 90s fastball is nor a mid-90s heater that he pairs with a change he’s been throwing successfully since he was 12 and a slider that sits low 80s with a sharp break. Scouts say his slider could eventually be a 55 rated pitch.

If they do not get Lewis at five do not be surprised if they grab Drew Waters with their second pick. Waters is a switch hitter with big power from both sides of the plate, a plus arm and plus speed. He hits everything hard all over the field and can motor on the bases as well as in the field. I like his upside a lot could easily see him in round two as projected by Kyle Deering at Draft Site.

UPDATE: Lewis went 1 – 1 and the Braves did indeed take Water at 41.

Saying all of that I still think the draft will be 50% pitching, it’s been that way forever.

Some Historical Draft Numbers

Here are some gee-whiz numbers to chew on. Since the draft started in 1965 the Braves have selected 1827 players and 899 (49.2%) of them were pitchers.

Of their top ten 23.7% and 11% of their top five draft picks came from California. Across MLB 22% of all picks came from the Golden State, the most of any state.

The next states in line for total Braves draft picks are: Texas 11.7%, Florida9.9%, Georgia 7%.and North Carolina 2.7%.  For MLB the states are Florida 10.8%, Texas 7.8%, Illinois 3.3% and Georgia 3.1%.

The Braves are thought of as drafting Georgia players first but that’s not the case.

That’s a wrap for now, more as the night goes on.