Atlanta Braves should target this 3rd baseman in a trade

An 11-20 record demands a shake-up, and the Braves should take a serious look at the third base position for both their ‘now’ and their ‘later’.

The Atlanta Braves have been trying to make Adonis Garcia work at third base for close to 2 full seasons now, covering 223 total games.

But it’s well-past time to call it:  he hasn’t been very good.

I admire his story, his heart, and his effort… but those things can only go so far on the field of play.  On top of that, he’s now 32 years old and not likely to improve from here.

Since 2016 started, there are 35 third basemen with 400+ plate appearance… roughly 2/3rds of the amount needed to qualify for a batting title.

Garcia’s ranks during that time…

• 33rd in fWAR (0.5)
• Tied for 35th in OBP
• 35th in OPS… and in fangraphs’ overall offensive rating score
• 5th worst in errors committed (3 behind Kyle Seager, though Garcia has about 20% fewer innings at the position… so he’s really the worst here, too.

While he is truly mashing lefty pitching (.333/.333/.583/.917 this season), his record is abysmal vs. RHP… a .578 OPS.  Unfortunately, there’s a lot more RH pitching than otherwise (117 PA’s vs. just 12 against southpaws).

So basically Adonis Garcia is the worst third baseman in baseball.  Admitting the problem is the first step toward a cure.

So if there is therefore any position that is obviously due for a shakeup or upgrade – this is it.

But is the answer Rio Ruiz?  2017 represents his second go at AAA, and frankly, if the organization believes that he’s a good long-term answer to the position, he’d already be in the majors… for the obvious reasons noted above.

After hitting .271 in AAA for 2016, he’s currently sitting at .250/.303/.429/.732 with Gwinnett.  3 homers, 13 RBI, and a 26% K-rate.  Honestly… Garcia’s numbers are actually a bit better.

A Hot Tip

This doesn’t happen often, but I noticed a trade possibility on twitter today that actually makes sense.

Credit does indeed go to another on this idea, but I’m willing to repeat this and sign on, for it truly looks like a match that could work between the Braves and Cubs.  Here goes:

Chip Carey didn’t know much about this kid and neither did I, so here’s the skinny:

• Jeimer Candelario is 23½ years old from the Dominican Republic, signed in 2010.
• Just called up to join the Cubs for their Colorado double-header, but could stick around a while (they just lost Matt Szczur to the Pades via trade)
• 6’1″/210 third baseman, switch hitter
• Hit .333 at Iowa in 2016, .340 so far this season.  Slugging over .550 combined (13 homers and 40 other XBH in 424 AAA PAs, 76 RBI)
• He talks his walks (~13%) while striking out (~19%) at an acceptable level
• Roughly average defender
• MLB Pipeline ranks:  #4 Cub prospect, 87th overall prospect in MLB, #5 third baseman
• Can also handle first base in a pinch

The better 3B prospects today?  Rafael Devers, Nick Senzel, Vlad Guerrero Jr, and Christian Arroyo.  None of them are going anywhere.

But the Cubs, of course, have this franchise-level kid named Kris Bryant to play third base, who is still just 25 years old himself.  If that doesn’t work out for them, then Javier Baez is his backup.

What Would He Cost?

That’s an interesting question, but the answer will depend on the Cubs’ needs near the trade deadline (or maybe sooner).  However, I strongly suspect that the answer will be… pitching.

Among the Cubs’ starting corps, there is one fairly obvious weak link:  Brett Anderson.  He was already sporting an ERA over 8, and now he in on the 10-day DL with lower back issues.  It’s hard to say how long that’s been bugging him, but he’s had 3 bad outings in 6 total starts this season,.

At the moment, the Cubbies are spot-starting replacements for Anderson.  Dylan Floro got the task done well in Denver on Tuesday, but was also immediately sent back to Iowa where he was sporting a 5.08 ERA there, so that should be telling.

My suspicion is that the Cubs would ask for some rotation help now and future depth help for later.  A fair deal for both sides might involve Jaime Garcia (under contract only for 2017) and Sean Newcomb, with the Braves also receiving an additional prospect from the Cubs in their 10-20 ranking range to balance the deal while Chicago also absorbs Garcia’s contract.

That’s fairly expensive from the Braves’ viewpoint, but with Newcomb, there is still some risk that he never becomes a major league rotation staple.  But he is improving (2.97 ERA, and 41 K in 30 innings, but 15 walks too), so now might be a good time to move him… particu;arly with the additional minor league  starting depth available.

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• Braves News: New Year’s Eve comes with several questions about the 2023 Braves

(Getting Victor Caratini back would be really helpful, but I seriously doubt that he’d be made available. I would definitely ask… but…)

Meanwhile…

The fate of Adonis Garcia in such a deal might be on the bench with Atlanta, where he’d actually be an upgrade, particularly against a lefty reliever.  But Candelario would be able to step in immediately and represent a chance to improve the position for a few years.

For Austin Riley fans out there, please realize that he’s still in High-A ball and has some performance questions to work through before he can be tagged as the ‘future third baseman’.  So whether that happens or not, the Braves truly need help as the position now and can’t afford to wait around to find out whether Riley will end up being “that guy”.

Timing

It is still early in the season for deals, but the Cubs are indeed scuffling – now 17 and 17 while falling back to fourth place in their division and losers of 6 in their last 10.

They could use a shot in the arm… and so could the Braves, for that matter, though getting Candelario would represent long-term help rather than a quick fix.

Since Jaime Garcia was acquired via trade and not signed as a veteran free agent, he can be traded literally at any moment of teams’ choosing, so there are no technical reasons for such a transaction to be held up until June 16 or July 31st or whenever.

Next: Acuna or Later...He's gonna hit'cha

But that’s one man’s idea… and one the seems to make all the sense in the world for both clubs.  Well done, Mr. Hinson!