Atlanta Braves Pre-Season Player Preview: Brandon Phillips

The Atlanta Braves new second baseman provides stability, flair and experience at a position that’s been desperately short of those things for a while.

It took two attempts and an injury to put Brandon Philips in an Atlanta Braves uniform but he’s enjoying himself not that it’s done.

The glove may not be golden and the rockets that were once homers are more likely to be doubles, but BP is the perfect bridge to Ozzie Albies. So, what kind of season can we expect this season from the man who produced all those web gens for Cincinnati?

Plugging the Second Base Leak

Fans regard the four-time Gold Glove winner and three-time All Star as one of the best but last three years saw a significant decline in his defensive metrics.  Aside from a wrist injury affected 2009,  Phillips posted a UZR of at least eight from 2007 through 2014. In that span his DRS numbers were solid if roller coaster like, averaging about eight a year.

In July of 2014 he tore a ligament in his that eventually required surgery. BP returned in August but was clearly not the same player on either side of the ball.

Over the last two years Phillips suffered a string of nagging little injuries but managed to avoid the disabled list.  Injuries to his hand, wrist, thumb and heel affected his defense something verified by the most commonly used Fangraphs metrics.  Unlike Fangraphs, Baseball Prospectus’ fielding runs above average has never been a fan of Phillips defense.

". . . FRAA, which does not rely on stringers eyeing batted ball data, chooses to rate Phillips’ glove as somewhere between indifferent and poor, depending on the year"

It’s odd then that  FRAA shows Phillips’ last two years better than the previous two though still at or below average.

As Alan noted in an earlier post, the Braves were 28th on Fangraphs list for second base defense last year with a –10.6 UZR and –16 DRS. So even at Phillips reduced level of play, he’s a real improvement at the keystone for the Braves.

Batter Up

While most fans see Phillips as an offensive force at second, a closer look shows that isn’t necessarily true.  While he had eight seasons with 17 or more home runs, only one those – 2011- ended with a significantly above league average wRC+.

Baseball Prospectus’ evaluation of the recent trade summed up their view of who BP is now as a hitter.

". . . Possessed of still-excellent contact ability, Dat Dude’s offensive game relies entirely on that tool; he can’t draw a walk to save his life and he no longer has the high-end power he used to."

Fangraphs echoes that evaluation but projects little change in his overall performance at the plate in their player profile.

"Although he has become more allergic to the walk . . .(he) posted the best strikeout rates of his career over the past two seasons. His batted-ball profile remains stable, he’s not swinging and missing more often, and he continues to run like the days of yore. Nothing in his profile suggests imminent collapse . . ."

They do suggest that his stolen base numbers will decline and my projections agrees with that.

So what now?

On the whole I’m more optimistic that BP will have a good year than other statistics driven projections.  One thing BP has done his whole career is hit doubles, slapping at least 24 in every season except 2015. The ability to hit doubles doesn’t necessarily go away as quickly as homers so while I projected just 22 this season I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s low.

When preparing this piece I found that in 2016 no player had more than Justin Upton’s 356 PA hitting in the six slot, The NL provided significantly less stability for the six hole hitter as only one player had more than 200 PA there.

So, Phillips  PA will go down because he will hit lower in the lineup. While the six spot seems made for gypsies, BP should have more PA there than anyone last year. I couldn’t see him dropping to 200 PA so I went with my gut and told myself he’ll get those PA somewhere.

Fewer PA will reduce his runs scored because the two hitters likely to hit behind him aren’t great RBI men and hitting sixth could make him less likely to steal — or more likely to steal because of the folks hitting behind him . . .  I project 11 steals; that could be high or low; BP is an aging free spirit so who knows?

That’s A Wrap

The reasoning behind my projection comes form a belief that getting away from a downward spiraling Cincinnati team and joining a team on the rise in his home town will give him a boost. He’s also in his walk year and will be looking for a new contract in the off-season which always seems to help. The downside is his age and injury.

At 36 BP is no spring chicken but he does appear to be in great shape. He had hamstring, groin and calf issues in 2010, 2011 and 2012. Since then his foundation’s been solid and he’s adjusted to the lost steps with better positioning.

Next: We Know What they Did This Winter

Worst case is he starts pulling hamstring and groin muscles by trying to do too much or he suddenly forgets how to make contact or both. I don’t believe the latter two will happen.

Adding Phillips was a good move for the team on an doff the field. I look for a typical BP year and a late season call up for Albies.