General Manager Meetings are over… territory has been marked out among them, and deals are starting to form. However, this is one deal that will not happen for the Braves.
Honestly, I think there’s a lot better case that could be made for the Justin Verlander rumor we seem to have started in these pages. After all, the Atlanta Braves are pursuing pitching, and are/were interested in a front-line starter among the acquisitions.
That speculation could at least be justified. This, on the other hand… not so much.
Permit to quote directly from Nick Carfardo, long-time sports reporter from the Boston Globe:
"1. Jose Bautista, OF/DH, free agent — The Red Sox are a potential landing spot. Bautista loves Boston, loves Fenway, hits well there (.972 career OPS), and has strong relationships with John Farrell and Brian Butterfield from their Toronto days. Also on the radar are Texas, Houston, Baltimore, St. Louis, San Francisco, and Atlanta. The feeling is Bautista won’t accept Toronto’s qualifying offer and that he will get a multiyear deal somewhere."
That’s a really powerful radar you’ve got there, Nick.
In fact, if the Braves are on it, I imagine that you can also see all 30 major league clubs in the same image since there are a bunch of teams that I’d also characterize as “not a candidate for Bautista” along with the Atlanta Braves.
Okay, since this has become a thing, let’s go ahead and list all of the reasons why it makes no sense whatsoever for the Braves:
- He’s already 36 years old.
- He can’t DH and his defensive rating in 2016 was -12.4 (though, for reference purposes, Matt Kemp‘s was -21.3… his best since 2013).
- He’s going to sign at something in the neighborhood of 3 years and $60 million.
- Atlanta would have to trade Kemp or Markakis to do that.
- 2016 saw his lowest production since 2009 (.817 OPS, 122 wRC+). Sure, that’s pretty solid, but the Braves’ corner OF’s pretty well matched this (.855 for Kemp, .744 for Markakis) and Kemp is still just 32 years old.
- He will have a Qualifying Offer tag hanging around his neck and that Braves will not pass up their 2nd round draft pick (guessing: around 38th overall) to sign his.
Add to this… the number of things that would have to happen for the Braves to even want to entertain the question:
- Trade Matt Kemp and all of his salary… or possibly Nick Markakis and all of his contract.
- No one else goes for Bautista in the meantime
- He’s so bereft of offers that he has to accept a National League deal.
- He’s so bereft of offers that he has to accept a lowball, 2 year deal for the Braves
- The Mets don’t take him first.
All of that together just makes the whole thing so much less than speculation – it’s just not realistic in any reasonable scenario.
For all of those other clubs mentioned… there’s at least a chance. St. Louis less so; the Giants perhaps. Houston… need a Left Fielder, so that’s at least plausible, money aside.
Yes, it’s a slow news day after the Colon signing. But Bautista to the Braves? No. Not going to happen.
Executives bullish on the Atlanta Braves
TIM TUCKER / TRIBUNE NEWS SERVICE via ALBANY HERALD
ATLANTA (TNS) — Investors in Atlanta Braves owner Liberty Media got a bullish scouting report on their baseball team at a recent meeting in New York.
“Our goal is to win the World Series,” Braves chairman and CEO Terry McGuirk told the group. “That’s what we set out to do every year. We’ve never felt like we were more on a glide slope to get there.”
The Braves’ “two main initiatives” in recent years, McGuirk said, have been to rebuild their minor-league system and to build their new stadium and adjacent mixed-use development. He said both initiatives have been successful, noting the farm system is ranked No. 1 in baseball by some analysts, and SunTrust Park will open “on time and on budget” for the start of next season.
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“We think the Braves are really in a strong position to grow long-term value,” Carleton said. “We think the team, the ballpark and the mixed-use are all really well-positioned.”
Liberty Media has reported in securities filings that SunTrust Park will cost $672 million, plus another $50 million for equipment and related costs. In last week’s presentation, streamed on the company’s website, Carleton showed the total of $722 million coming from $392 million in public funding and $330 million in debt taken on by the Braves.
He said the Braves expect the new stadium to generate significant revenue growth, an unspecified portion of which will go into increasing the payroll.
“History tells us that there’s a 15 to 25 percent increase in revenues as you move into a new ballpark,” Carleton said. “Some of that will flow through to the bottom line, and some of it will prudently go into our on-the-field talent.”
Liberty Media views Braves management as “one of the best in the business,” Carleton said, likening it to the Cardinals’ and Giants’ front offices.
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“In 2014, we looked at our minor-league system and were not happy,” McGuirk said. “We had a bottom-10 minor-league system and said this is not sustainable, not something that is going to work long-term for us.”
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“We have a lot of pitching coming, wave after wave,” he said.
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“We are so jacked up for the beginning of ‘17,” McGuirk said.
[ Ed. Note: that’s a pretty positive outlook, though it must be said that this was a presentation made to investors in Liberty Media, so you should expect that.
Nonetheless, it’s all defensible. The path is straight and the highway is wide. The Braves’ plan should sustain them financially and in terms of a prospect pipeline for several years, and we’re now just starting to open the window of opportunity.
I suppose that’s why we’re just itching to see ‘what’s next to come’ in this off-season, the rebuild, and more. ]