Analyzing Pitching Requirements for the Atlanta Braves

If the Braves are truly seeking “two or three” starting pitchers to bolster their rotation for 2017, then there might not be a better place to start looking than Tampa Bay.

Two or three starting pitchers.

That’s the word from the Front Office of the Atlanta Braves this week.  It’s not 1 or 2 anymore — it’s 2 to 3.

That quantity conjures up more questions than answers – particularly at this oh-so-early point in the off-season:

• 1. Does the really mean that Teheran, Folty, and Wisler are all sticking around?
• 2. How can the Braves possibly find that many decent starters – especially while everybody else is also hunting for pitching?
• 3. Would they do this via trades, free agency, or both?
• 4. What kind of pitchers?  And does the goal mean that the Braves intend to “go for it” in 2017??

Let’s examine those questions in detail and see if answers can be found.

Forming Some Answers

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If you were trying to add that much pitching, how would you accomplish this?  There should be some goals in mind:

• Add a #1 or #2 starter to take the pressure off of…well, all three of the incumbents.
• Add a solid “innings eater” for the back end to insure that 4th or 5th day isn’t a “hold your breath” game that destroys the bullpen.
• Add someone willing to be stashed at AAA for spot-starting purposes.

These would be the baseline goals.  Anything more would be gravy.  It would allow new pitchers to complement and support the 3 already here and allow rookies to earn their way in over time without needing to make an immediate impact.

That’s certainly consistent with this remark from Dave O’Brien:

"What the Braves don’t want to do again is watch multiple young starting pitchers going the trial-by-fire course, getting knocked around mercilessly or coming apart at the first sign of adversity. They love their young pitching, but want to make sure they can develop it at a proper pace while waiting for the elite arms to arrive in coming years."

Julio Teheran is going nowhere.  Mike Foltynewicz and Matt Wisler have now established themselves are major league staters, having mostly worked through their own trials-by-fire.  It does not make sense to dismiss, demote, or otherwise dispense with any of these if the Braves are intent on adding additional support.

It is instead the Aaron Blairs, John Gants, Tyrell Jenkinses, or as future rookies the Chris Ellises, Sean Newcombs, Lucas Simses of the world that this scheme aims to protect.  That is the point of Coppy’s plan.

So there is an answer for Question 1.  But that’s the easy question.

Finding Pitching – Here’s One Source

For this exercise, the answer to questions two and three will be centered around the example of the Tampa Bay Rays.  It is certainly possible – likely, even – that John Coppolella is already making inquiries in that direction for a trade market acquisition.  Here’s why:

No – the Braves are not mentioned.  It fact, no team is named.  And it’s extremely early at this point.  But when the Rays have future needs and have guys like Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, and Drew Smyly that were being dangled at the trade deadline… people will call.  Teams like the Braves with multiple pitching needs will definitely call.  And again, this is merely a logical exercise based on the stated goals, but sure:  the Rays would be a candidate.

Complications will occur in the trade market

You might think that a sell-off of pitching by the Rays might run afoul of this next declaration (which actually sounds a lot like Coppy from a year ago)…

However, while Rays’ GM Matt Silverman is saying that, he also does not mean that moves are not impossible if they are designed to get his club back into shape … at some point soon:

So that… plus a few other comments (see Marc Topkin’s twitter timeline for the past couple of days)… suggests that Tampa Bay will listen to offers for smart deals.  He realizes that he has pitching assets that are in demand – and like John Coppolella, he realizes that those assets are the keys to reforming his team into a competitive force.

That is why Silverman was fielding calls for his starters in July – and why those calls are being made again at this time.  It is likely that someone will acquire at least one Rays’ starter… and it is reasonable to believe that the Braves will be involved in the scrum.

But who?

What Tampa Might Have for Sale

(No White Sox pun intended there)

Coppolella does not wish to spend all of his newly-acquired resources in multiple trades, but one or two targeted deals would make sense since there is a poor free agent market with little depth after Rich Hill – who will be 37 next March.

All of that said, here’s what the Braves could be looking at if they are indeed looking at Tampa Bay:

• CHRIS ARCHER.  Age 28 and clearly the best on their staff overall.  Posted a 4.02 ERA in the AL East in 2016 over 201 innings.  Archer’s contract is exceedingly “team friendly”, with options of $9 million and $11 million in 2020 and 2021.
• JAKE ODORIZZI.  Age 26 and was the best for the team in 2016 with a .369 ERA in almost 188 innings.  Odorizzi is in his arbitration years and is scheduled to be a free agent after 2019.
• DREW SMYLY.  Age 27.  4.88 ERA – not great, but do recall that this is the American League – AL East in particular.  Was more homer-prone than his mates.  Also in arbitration, Smyly is set to be a free agent after 2 more seasons.

It is likely that the cost to acquire any of these pitchers is ranked in order from high-to-low in this list, with Archer’s and Odorizzi’s trade value significant higher than that of Smyly.

How high would Coppolella aim?  Well that is a very good question.

The Rays’ Needs

Tampa Bay’s depth chart shows a nice supply of pitching:  Snell, Cobb, Andriese follow the three above.  They could use help in the outfield, catcher, and replacement pitching.  The Braves might be able to find a fit there – depending on how much they’d be willing to give up.

Again, this is an exercise:  the tweets noted prior were the prompt to pick on Tampa Bay, but there are other teams with other available starters that could get the Braves’ ear this Fall.

Back to the Braves

The logic of the situation is this:  if you are looking for just 1-2 pitchers, then your goal is likely to fill in spots – a back-end innings guy, plus a AAA just-in-case veteran.  Attempting to add 3 strongly suggests a loftier goal – and that may only be available via trade this year.

The Answer to those questions?  If the goals outlined above are correct and the Braves are indeed aiming this high for pitching, then at least one trade will be necessary for acquiring a quality veteran pitcher since we know the Free Agent market is weak.

Such a trade would be painful for the Braves – but Coppolella has referred to his stockpile of pitching prospects as “currency” for trades on multiple occasions – and has made such deals already.

Finishing the Task

As for the rest:  free agent acquisitions or ‘lesser trades’ may be possible to complete the goals set forth for a 2017 rotation.  The market isn’t that bad for depth, after all.  Here are some possibilities:

• Doug Fister
• Andrew Cashner (with beard included)
• Jeremy Hellickson (Qualifying Offer?)
• Rich Hill
• Mat Latos
• Colby Lewis
• Ivan Nova
• Edinson Volquez

…just to name a few of the better options.  A full list – including players with contractual options – is here at MLB Trade Rumors.

Best guess:  if Coppolella wants a front-line complement for Teheran, he will have to engineer a serious trade.  If he wants depth and veteran support nearer the back end of the rotation, then he can look for free agents or lesser trades.

That Final Question

Ideally, every Team, every General Manager should go into every season with the goal of winning a World Series.  Aiming for less than that means that you will achieve less.  Obviously.

That said, circumstances often dictate that “aiming lower” is the correct course of action for various reasons.  That was the case for the Braves in 2015 and 2016.  However, buoyed by the sudden rebound over the second half of 2016, early indications suggest that the aim could be considerably higher for Atlanta in 2017.

We should know that if/when this first big pitching trade is made.  If Coppolella wants to infuse a bolt of energy into the entirety of Braves Country, then a trade for a bona fide frontline starting pitcher would do exactly that.  It would make the statement that the Atlanta Braves are back, and are intending to stick around for the long haul.

Next: But Did We Learn Anything?

The offense is more-or-less ready as it stands.  Achieving the pitching goals as declared would put the Braves on track to making a run in the NL East … immediately.