When the season ends the Atlanta Braves must restructure the roster to prepare for the Rule 5 Draft. Who leaves and which prospects are protected?
Since John Hart and John Coppolella took over front office duties for the Atlanta Braves we’ve seen some unexpected names exposed to and lost to the Rule 5 draft. In 2014 The Twins took J.R. Graham and last year The Braves outrighted Todd Cunningham to make room on the roster and lost him to the Angels on a waiver claim. To understand the changes we need to review the rules.
The Reserve List – 40 Man Roster
As noted above during the season the reserve list may have more than 40 players on it because teams may replace players on the 60 day DL during the season, Rule 2 (a) of The Official Professional Baseball Rules Book says that the exception for disabled list players vanishes after the season ends.
"On a date designated by the Commissioner . . .each Major League Club shall file Major League and Minor League Reserve Lists with the Commissioner . . . A Major League Club shall include on its Major League Reserve List all players, player-managers and player- coaches who are currently under Major League Uniform Player’s Contracts . . . or who have been promoted to Major League status and must be tendered a Major League Uniform Player’s Contract for the following championship season by December 2. (emphasis added)"
This year the date is Friday, November 18th as the the 20th falls on a Sunday.
The Roster Now
There are 45 players currently on the reserve list. Five of those players are on the 60 day DL; Jesse Biddle, Andrew McKirahan, Eric O’Flaherty, Paco Rodriguez. Mallex Smith and Daniel Winkler.
Two of those players will absolutely be added back to the roster; Rodriguez and Smith. Winkler will likely be retained as well depending on how well his elbow is progressing.
Biddle and O’Flaherty are both a free agents after the season. EOF will not be tendered a contract and Biddle hasn’t yet thrown a pitch so it’s unlikely he will either.
If those assumptions are correct the roster sits at 43.
Next: Bye For Now
Who leaves?
There are six unrestricted free agents who won’t be on the roster unless the Braves choose to sign them back after this season; Gordon Beckham, Joel De La Cruz, Jim Johnson, A.J. Pierzynski, Brandon Snyder and Blake Lalli. Those signings are unlikely until after December fifth.
Unless my math is off that brings the roster down to 37 and others will probably leave and lower that number.
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Chaz Roe is arbitration eligible and out of options but unlikely to be tendered a contract before the rule 5 draft Anthony Recker is arbitration eligible but as far as I can determine, out of options.
He’s 33 years old so It’s far more likely they will ask him to sign a minor league deal again after December fifth. Keeping him requires a spot on the active roster next year. When they acquire the catcher upgrade they are openly seeking, Recker would have to pass through waivers to remain in the system.
Other arbitration eligible players include Casey Kelly and Brandon Cunniff. I could see Cunniff being tendered a contract but the Kelly is probably nontendered.
Pre-Arb Players
Chase d’Arnaud is pre-arb but, he’s also of options. I’m not sure how they handle him but like Recker he’s probably nontendered and signed back later if he’s still available.
Daniel Winkler and Andrew McKirahan are pre-arb as well. I’ve already suggested they keep Winkler unless the elbow isn’t healing to their liking. McKirahan is probably safe under that criteria as well but that could go either way.
Those assumptions put the roster at 34 leaving six slots open for rule five protection but, who needs protection.
Next: More rules
A Rule 5 Primer
(Note: if you know all about rule five feel free to jump to the next page.)
The MLB Rule 5 Draft takes place every year on the last day of the Winter Meetings after the final 40 man roster and the reserve lists are submitted. There are three phases to the Rule 5 draft:
- The Major League Phase when teams can select Rule 5 Draft eligible players off the reserve lists of any minor league clubs for a fee of $50,000.
- The AAA Phase when AAA affiliates can choose eligible players off the reserve lists of minor league clubs below AAA for $12,000.
- The AA Phase when AA affiliates can choose eligible players off the reserve lists of minor league clubs below AA for $4,000.
Who is Eligible?
The rules making a player vulnerable to the Rule 5 draft are a little convoluted but I’ll try to make it as simple as possible.
Rule 5
A minor league player is Rule 5 eligible if:
- Was 18 or younger on the June 5th immediately prior to signing his first contract is eligible for selection starting with the fifth Rule 5 Draft after his first qualified season
- Was 19 years or older on the June 5th immediately prior to signing his first contract becomes eligible for selection starting with the fourth Rule 5 Draft following his first qualified season.
- He was released and signed back with the team
- He was on a minor league reserve list and was outrighted to the minors at least once before in his career
- Anyone the team wants to designate as eligible.
- Minor league player-managers who would be eligible for selection as a player
- Players eligible to be an MLB Rule 55 (6 year) minor league free-agent (see below)
- who sign a new minor league contract with his current organization before being declared a free-agent
- Free agents with prior MLB and/or minor league service who sign a minor league contract prior to the Rule 5 Draft
If a player signs his first contract after the conclusion of the season of the team he is first assigned to the next season is considered his “first qualified season.” This largely applies to undrafted free agents or international free agents since the signing date for Rule 5 draftees is in July.
Next: Six Year Free Agents
Rule 55: The Six-Year Minor League Free-Agent
Rule 55 free agents – commonly called or six-year free agents – are, as noted, another special case. Here’s the criteria for Rule 55 free agency.
A player is a Rule 55 free-agent five days after the World Series ends at 5 PM (Eastern) if:
- The player had his first contract renewed six times and has spent all or any part of at least seven separate seasons on a minor league roster and/or
- The player has been previously released or non-tendered in his career and his present contract has expired.
As it relates to this rule a player is not credited with a minor league year if:
- The Player spends the entire season on an MLB Active List, MLB Disabled List(s), and/or other MLB Inactive List, or
- The player spends an entire season on the Restricted List, Disqualified List, Suspended List, Ineligible List, Voluntarily Retired List, and/or Military List.
Taking part in the AZL, or winter league ball doesn’t count as a minor league season.
Got all that? Good there will be a test later…open book. . . So with those things in mind off we go into eligibility.
Lists
Here’s a list of players I believe are Rule 55 free agents and would have to be signed back to be protected.
Player Pos Lvl Willians Astudillo C AA Carlos Franco 3B AA Ryan Gebhardt INF A+ Sean Kazmar SS AAA Steve Kent LHP AA Emerson Landoni 2B AAA Victor Mateo RHP AA Jimmy Moran RHP A+ Jordan Pacheco 1B AAA Braeden Schlehuber C AAA Luis Valenzuela SS A+ Rob Wooten RHP AAA Aside from Max Fried, players below AA are unlikely Rule 5 claims as they have to be on an active roster all year. Those players can be protected from the later phases through addition to a minor league reserve list.
Below is a list of the players I see as at risk. The table includes midyear prospect rankings from various sources including our list of course.
Player Pos Lvl MLBP BA RK BP RK TT RK Max Fried LHP A 11 8 9 6 Lucas Sims RHP AA 14 10 11 Rio Ruiz 3B AAA 15 12 Joey Meneses OF/1B AA 16 Joseph Odom C AA 25 Connor Lien OF AA 10 37 Johan Camargo 2B AA 41 Steve Janas RHP AAA 48 Reed Harper SS AA Levi Hyams 1B AA Matt Lipka OF AAA David Peterson RHP AA Jake Schrader 1B AA (Note:The BA and BP midseason lists only rank the their top ten players thus not having a rank in their column doesn’t mean they aren’t prospects just not top ten prospects.)
Several names jump off the list as ranked players whose protect is assured; Fried, Sims, and Ruiz. Others like Janas, Lien and Dave Peterson are also likely to earn protection and a case can be made for Camargo, Odom and Meneses.
Alan suggested protecting Lipka in an earlier post but he seems in the same category as Cunningham. For that reason I doubt he’s added.
That’s a Wrap
The roster isn’t as jammed up as was once thought. Admittedly determining who is Rule 5 eligible is confused by the Rule 55 free agent issue. I asked the folks at Roster Resource and they indicated they have the same issues so I don’t feel so bad.
Next: GCL Braves End fo Season Report
The roster is also more of a moving target than I expected this far into September. The AJ saga and odd addition of Lalli so late forced a rewrite this morning. He is however a free agent after the year so in the long run it made no difference to the final list.
I polled the writers here for there must save guys and found most were covered in this list. Teams willing to carry an A ball player for a year might grab Bird or Parsons but that’s unlikely. I’m sure you all have opinions; let’s hear them.