Atlanta Braves’ Julio Teheran… Sustainable Greatness?

The Argument is getting louder by the day:  is Julio Teheran ‘worth’ a big trade return?  Is his FIP telling?  Is he going to regress?  Or is he who he’s really been?

It’s kind of funny, seeing Red Sox fans on twitter.  They are… pretty opinionated at times.  Of course, so are we.

Let’s play with some numbers…

FACTOR #1 – HOME RUNS AND BALLPARKS

Here are Julio Teheran‘s homer rate numbers (per 9 innings) for the past few seasons:

• 2013:  1.07
• 2014:  0.90
• 2015:  1.21
• 2016:  1.10

Fact is, when he’s giving up any runs, it’s usually via the homer this year.  29 earned runs total, 13 home runs allowed.  Given there have been a couple of non-solo homers (Joey Votto‘s 3-run jack, for instance), then yes:  when opponents score on Julio, it’s usually via the long ball.

But even with his stellar 2016 season, that 1.10 figure is right in line with the past 3 years… and that’s even close to last season’s less-than-ideal year.

Let’s look at the park effects (higher means more home runs):

NL EAST: 

• Turner Field: 1.012
• Citizens Bank Park:  1.053
• Marlins Park: 0.970
• Citi Field:  0.930
• Nationals Park:  0.902

AL EAST:

• Yankee Stadium:  1.633 (Most homer-prone in baseball)
• Fenway Park:  0.835 (25th in baseball)
• Rogers Centre:  0.958
• Oriole Park:  0.978
• Tropicana Field:  0.838

So when you weigh each list for 81 home games plus 9 away games for each opponent, here’s the result:

• AL EAST:  107.298
• NL EAST:  116.667

In other words – all other factors being equal – a Fenway Park home field would be roughly 8% less homer prone for a random pitcher against divisional opponents than Turner Field.

So the argument is actually bunk.

Next: More Pitching Math

FACTOR #2:  BABIP

Batting Average (against) with Balls in Play… if anything looks out of place for Teheran this year, it’s this stat.

Of all qualified starting pitchers in the majors, Julio Teheran is now 2nd best in the majors in getting batters out when they put his pitches into play.

• Marco Estrada:  .189 BABIP (2.81 ERA)
• Julio Teheran:  .209 (2.46 ERA)
• Colby Lewis:  .234 (3.21 ERA)
• Jake Arrieta:  .242 (2.10 ERA)

Teheran’s typical BABIP numbers are just around .275 in prior years, so on the surface, you’d have to think that this is due to luck.

A couple of thoughts to that point:

• Sure, maybe he’s in a really good stretch of pitching, but to suggest that over 106 innings and 16 starts that this 65 points reduction is entirely due to a lucky streak is a bit disingenuous.
• Are those other pitchers above also having lucky years?  Or are they making hitters make poor contact?
• In the comments of a recent Fangraphs.com writeup on Teheran, a commenter had an interesting point (2015 and 2016 data via commenter ‘Sn0wman‘):
  • Pierzynski catching: 21 GS, 111 1/3 IP, 5.09 ERA, 9.62 H/9, 3.96 BB/9, 8.25 K/9, 1.62 HR/9
  • Lavarnaway, Bethancourt, and Flowers: 28 GS, 187 1/3 IP, 2.69 ERA, 6.49 H/9, 2.31 BB/9, 7.73 K/9, 0.96 HR/9

  So is Teheran better because he’s better or because A.J. is catching him a lot less?  Or both?

  FACTOR #3:  FIPping Off

  A favorite topic to spout off about among amateur statheads is FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching.  It’s also a stat that I really hate.

  For one thing, there is no such thing.  Every pitch thrown can be hit, and every pitch that is hit must be fielded.  Unless pitchers routinely strike out more than half the batters they face (only Noah Syndergaard is close among starters), you cannot escape that fact.

  Yet a lot of people still quote FIP religiously, and declare that if it’s higher than your ERA, you’ve “out-pitched your peripherals” and cannot sustain that success.  Quod Erat Demonstrandum.

  Tom Glavine would like a word… lifetime 3.54 ERA, 3.95 FIP… but wait, there’s more:

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  • 1991 (20-11):  2.55 ERA vs. 3.06 FIP
  • 1992 (20-8):  2.76 vs. 2.94
  • 1993 (22-6):  3.20 vs. 4.01
  • 1998 (20-6):  2.47 vs. 3.50
  • 2000 (21-9):  3.40 vs. 4.03
  • 2002 (18-11): 2.96 vs. 4.20

  Did I cherry-pick those numbers?  Yes – I picked his 6 best years by W-L record.  But there’s more than these.  Glavine sustained this because he lived on the outside corner and dared hitters to hit his pitches.  When they did, they did so poorly.  As a Hall of Famer, he’s the Poster Child for my anti-FIP movement.

  Glavine averaged 5.32 strikeouts per 9 innings and 0.73 HR/9.  These are the key elements of FIP construction… and it’s the lack of K’s that kill him on FIP.

  Same goes with Teheran – except that he goes about his business with command, speed changes, and movement.  He will never be a FIP darling.

  Is that sustainable?  Sure it is – so long as he keeps the ball down and keeps hitters guessing.

  When hitters guess correctly (see the aforementioned Joey Votto), they will hit him hard.  But that’s not happening often, and it does appear that having catchers who work well with him are a factor.

  But if the Boston fans – or anyone else – is really concerned about a ‘regression to the mean’, then I have another reason to scare them about their own pitching staff:

  Steven Wright?  You know… the one guy who is really pitching well for the Red Sox?  ERA 2.18… FIP 3.43.  That’s a FIP-gap of 1.25… and Teheran’s (2.46 vs. 3.70) is 1.24.

  Given that Teheran is healthy and in the prime of his career, I can’t understand why people aren’t thinking that this 2016 performance isn’t simply the Julio Teheran we were told all along would have the ceiling of a #1 pitcher.

  DISCUSSION QUESTIONS

  Is Teheran an Ace?

  There are three possible answers right now – any one of which should be acceptable:

  • Yes
  • Not quite, but you might have to say so if this stretch continues for the rest of the season
  • Doesn’t matter – results are results

  Should Red Sox Fans be Concerned About HR prone-ness?

  No.  Maybe only in Yankee stadium against Brian McCann or Carlos Beltran.  But that goes for everybody.

  Should Red Sox Fans be Concerned About BABIP?

  Heck, no.  That .209 is sustainable because he’d actually have to get worse to keep it there.

  In June, it’s been .128.  Recall that Teheran had a slow start to the year… pretty much while Pierzynski was catching him.  In April, his BABIP was .276.

  In other words, if he ‘regresses’ to the worst he’s been all year… well, that’s his career normal.  And even that hasn’t been bad.

  Should Red Sox Fans be Concerned About FIP?

  If so, Red Sox fans should be worried about their entire rotation… but especially Wright.  Teheran will always have a higher FIP than ERA.  It’s just what he does.

  Should Red Sox Fans Be Concerned About Giving Up Their Farm System?

  How happy do you want to be in November?  I guess if you let the Dodgers go get Teheran, it won’t matter.  Or the Braves would be just as happy to keep him, though I don’t want to hear the complaints.

  Next: Maybe Teheran is an All-Star

  Either way, Atlanta wins.