Atlanta Braves and The Trade

Credit: Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports

When the Atlanta Braves traded Andrelton Simmons o the  Angels there was  an explosion of disbelief amongst fans.  In the aftermath of chaos a look ahead,

Trading Simba

I said when the rumors started that trading Simmons was a bar public relations move unless they return was big. I was not alone in that. Before the trade happened David O’Brien opined muchthe same thing

The trade was made and the return did not surpass any of last year’s trades,  for Simmons and a minor league catcher Jose Briceno the Braves received shortstop Erick Aybar, LHP Sean Newcomb and RHP Chris Ellis.

I’m not going to jump into analyzing the pitchers at this point except to say that if Newcomb can stop walking people while continuing to strike out 11 per nine innings he could make a nice top of the rotation starter. Ellis projects optimistically as a three but is more likely to be a four or five. Now about the shortstop we acquire and the spin we got immediately that made most folks do a double take.

Sep 29, 2015; Anaheim, CA, USA; Los Angeles Angels shortstop Erick Aybar (2) doubles to right to produce a run during the eighth inning against the Oakland Athletics at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

A little short at short

In a post on his Braves blog O’Brien quoted the new GM’s response to a reporter who said some fans, “. . .that some fans would look at this again as the Braves dumping salary and moving a popular player for nothing more than additional pitching prospects.. . “

"“. . . You can make an argument that we are actually a team that can win more games with Aybar,” Coppolella said. “Aybar is a career .276 hitter; Simmons has never hit .276 in a full season. Aybar’s a switch-hitter, 18 months back an All-Star, he can hit (first or second in the order) for you. I mean, Aybar’s a really good player. I think we traded defense for offense in this trade. The fact that we got two huge-upside arms is great, but as far as for 2016, I don’t think that’s a big step back for this Braves team."

That sounds right on the surface but let’s take a look at what he said and see if it really is correct.

Numerically speaking.

A quick glance at the slash lines from the Baseball Reference web site  does indeed show Aybar with an advantage. All stats in this comparison are from 2012 forward as they speak to recent performance.

They also show that he hit into less double plays, walked less and struck out more. From a power standpoint Simons has more home runs -31 to his 24- but Aybar has more doubles –124 to Simmons 76 – and roughly 150 more hits.

As a clutch hitter Aybar’s been pretty dependable and consistent.

That’s good right? Yes it is but some have a different view.

A piece in the Washington Post had this cryptic paragraph, see if if can pick out the bit that made me reread it twice.

"“. . .Aybar, . . can stand at shortstop and field the position and hit his empty .276/.315/.378 (his career numbers) next summer (or, worse, his .270/.301/.338 from 2015). . .”"

What is an empty 276/.315/.378?  We used to call them hollow batting averages and now we have hollow OBPs, they look pretty good on paper but they don’t produce a lot on the field. To see that we’ll take a look at some advanced stats again from 2012 through 2015.

Sep 29, 2015; Anaheim, CA, USA; Los Angeles Angels shortstop Erick Aybar (2) reaches to apply a tag to Oakland Athletics right fielder Josh Reddick (22) at second during the first inning at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

Descriptive Stats

Most of us understand WAR and it’s two iterations – Fangraphs and BBR – and that the sites calculate it slightly differently. The differences are explained at this link.  Since 2012 Simmons provided 11.8 fWAR, 17.2 rWAR while Aybar  provided 10.5 fWAR and 12 rWAR. War. Most of Simmons WAR comes from defense while Aybar gets his from offense and that’s what the GM said he traded for so here’s a look at that.

If you understand the runs created stats skip this section

There are a couple of stats that make understanding a player’s effect on a team at the plate, weighted runs created (wRC) and weighted runs created plus (wRC+).  Fangraphs explains why each should be used better than I’ll share those.

"“If you’ve looking to measure a batter’s value using a cumulative statistic that credits a player for total production rather than on an at bat by at bat basis, then wRC is extremely useful. It combines the virtues of a weighted statistic like wOBA, which credits a hitter for how valuable each particular action truly is, with the virtues of counting stats that give players credit for producing at a given level over a great number of plate appearances . . .” “If you want a rate statistic for hitters that weights each offensive action and controls for league and park effects, wRC+ is for you. While wOBA is a huge step forward from stats like batting average and slugging percentage, it doesn’t credit hitters who play in difficult parks or deduct points for hitters who play in smaller ones. wRC+ brings all the virtues of wOBA plus two added benefits; park and league adjustments . . .” Both wRC and wRC+ are easy to use once you learn their scales. Since wRC is a counting stat, you want to be very aware of the number of plate appearances the batter in question currently has. A player with 10 wRC in 50 PA is very good, but a player with 10 wRC in 200 PA is very bad. . . wRC is a measure of raw production and should be used as such. . . “. . .wRC+ is even easier because league average for position players is always 100. If a player has a 110 wRC+, you know they are ten percentage points better than league average offensively. . . “ “Please note that the following chart is meant as an estimate, and that league-average wRC will vary from year to year. But as a general breakdown, this distribution works fine with wRC listed per 600 plate appearances. League average wRC+ will always be 100. “"

Here’s the chart they reference.

Win probability added WPAis a very useful stat when determining how much a player’s at bats added to his team winning, Fangraphs explains it like this.

"WPA is the ultimate context dependent statistic. You get credit based on how much your action contributes to the odds of winning, meaning a home run in a 1-1 game in the 9th is dramatically more valuable than one in a 10-1 game in the 9th. For this reason, WPA is terrific at telling the story of the game and the players who delivered in big situations."

Here are Aybar’s numbers in those categories

Those numbers are all better than Simmons produced in the seasons listed so Coppolella can honestly say there will be an increase in offensive production. What he doesn’t say but WPA and  Washington Post quote do is that even though the counting stats are good his offense produced no change in the probability that his team would win the game.

Defense

Defensive stats are many and varied. Fielding percentage shows how well a player who attempts to play the ball does it if the official scorer gets it right but it’s not very descriptive. Defensive runs saved  is calculated by The Fielding Bible rating players above or below average on defense and capture a player’s total defensive value based on runs as explained at this link.  Aybar’s last season with a positive DRS was 2012 when he posted a +3, Since that time he’s been consistently negative with ranks of –7, –3 .-3.  Fangraphs chart shows a –5 as below average.

He also ranks near the bottom in every defensive measure for last season. Inside Edge Fielding says Aybar will make most of the routine plays (96.1%), just over 2/3 of likely plays (69.4%) and two thirds of  50/50 plays (66.7%). That a significant drop off from what Braves pitchers and fans are used to seeing.

What’s All This Mean

Fangraphs David Laurila posted a compilation of quotes from John Coppolella this morning that I believe clearly explain what happened. The shambles on a season just completed did indeed shock the front office and this trade was a reaction to the team’s inability to score runs. One of the quotes says “We finished 30th in baseball in runs in 2015 and 29th in 2014, so we need to find ways to improve our offense.“ To that end they apparently looked at offense alone and saw that Simmons was not improving at the plate so they looked for a shortstop who could hit regardless of his defensive inadequacies.

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The next pair of quotes is almost inexplicable whether you’re an old time baseball guy or a new age statistics based fan. Rather than remove any nuance here are both quotes in their entirety.

"“Infield defense is very important and Andrelton may be the best of all time. It’s hard to quantify not only the hits he turns into outs, but also the extra pitches, and the stress associated with those pitches, for our young arms. That being said, defense isn’t everything."

No Mr. Coppolella it isn’t that difficult. As noted above, DRS does a pretty good job of quantifying how much defense does for a team and particularly defense up the middle.

"“The New York Mets reached the World Series this year and, with all due respect, they didn’t have an impact defensive shortstop. There is a value to defense, but sometimes you see such spectacular plays from some defensive masterminds that you forget about other deficiencies in their games.”"

Context is everything with quotes like this and while factually accurate. this statement ignores context of the season where it took place. The Mets were helped by playing in a division where two teams were essentially awful, one had a clown car for a front office and the team with talent self destructed. Those teams lacked the quality hitting to take advantage of the extra outs the Mets infield defense gave them while Mets pitching was able to hold on to a lead. Within the division they were 11-8 against the Braves, Nationals and Marlins and 14 and 5 against the Phillies. Outside the division they were 7-0 against the Reds and Rockies and 5-2 facing Arizona.  That accounts for 66 wins created by the offense and their dominant pitching.

What he doesn’t mention is that in the World Series the Mets middle infield defense gave up the leads while the Royals middle infield sparkled and let nothing by. The Royals won games they should not have won had the Mets infield made the plays. Yes it was Murphy errors that were the most impactful and actually Wilmer Flores played as good a shortstop as he’s ever played but Coppy’s philosophy in this case would have been that Murphy’s bat makes up for all his defensive ineptitude;  it didn’t and doesn’t.  Murphy’s incredible hot streak got them to the World Series but when the chips were down, his glove and his bat failed;  pitching and defense wins.

That’s A Wrap

Trading Simmons was a bad idea without a better return  Rob Neyer on MLB Network’s High Heat today at 12:30 said that he wasn’t surprised by the trade but he was surprised what they got in return. He went on to say what I;ve been saying, In Sean Newcomb and Chris Ellis the Braves got a pair of big arm and they already had 6 six or more guys like that. The Braves will say that Newcomb is a potential number one who will be ready to help some time this summer while Touki Toussaint isn’t close to ready and that’s true but he felt it wasn’t the right return.

Neyer opined as I have that the return for Simmons should have received at good young bat because they don’t have any of those near ready.  If the trade had included a young bat like Scott Schebler as well as a starter they could have pointed to that starter and a power bat as a genuine improvement. Instead that have the power starter, another generic fourth/fifth/bullpen arm and  have to spin Aybar’s bat into a difference  maker for the offense.
To be fair to Coppella, he was talking to the average fan who doesn’t understand advanced stats and won’t notice plays Simmons would have made because Aybar doesn’t get near them. Coppolella’s dismissal of middle infield defense was however indefensible – no pun intended – for an analytics guy.

That quote from our current GM reminded me of  a quote from our former GM.  On Feb 20 2o11 David O’Brien wrote a post entitled “Wren says Braves’ defense isn’t a concern” when Frank Wren gave O’Brien this strange quote.

"“At the end of the day, I don’t think errors contribute a great deal to losses,” Braves general manager Frank Wren said. “I mean, that [126 errors] is still less than an error a game. And it depends on when the errors happens. With nobody on, you boot a ground ball and then you get a double play, it’s an error. But all errors aren’t created equal. “I think that’s much overblown. . . That’s really not a concern of ours. I know it’s great blog fodder, but it’s not a concern.”"

Wren was wrong and Coppolella is wrong. Defense matters particularly defense up the middle.
No one I’ve read or talked to recently believes anything the front office says any longer. How they handle the rest of the rebuild for 2015 this off season is critical to gaining the fans trust and getting those fans back in the stands next year.