The Braves are unlikely to dive head first into the high end of the FA market but a solid team capable of challenging could be created with a few out of the box ideas.
On Monday Alan told us about the prospect of money flowing into all teams after 2017 and suggested that the Atlanta Braves were unlikely to splurge right now. That’s true and the front office has said as much often. They also said they were going to be aggressive in the free agent market this year. With that in mind Alana proposed a few trades on Tuesday that he believed would work. I’ve put together some ideas offering a different approach – that I doubt anyone will like –to getting that done.
As the GMs rough it at their annual meeting in Florida the Braves have few certainties on their roster. Andrelton Simmons will be their shortstop, Freddie Freeman the first baseman, Hector Olivera will play third base or left field and Nick Markakis will be in right; everything else is up for grabs. The payroll ceiling is $120M and we have too many outfielders is Olivera plays left. Okay then let’s try to fill the holes.
Clearing Payroll
Nick Markakis to Kansas City for Hunter Dozier.
The Royals need a bat like Markakis’ if they are going to hang around for another World Series chase. Dozier was a first round pick who needs work on his conversion to third base and after a shaky start found his bat again late in the season. Markakis isn’t a give away piece but he’s a perfect fit in KC and worth a good prospect.
Cameron Maybin to the Giants for Dylan Davis
This primarily designed to clear some salary and add a minor league bat. Maybin gives San Francisco a back up the perpetually injured Angel Pagan.
Dylan Davis’ calling card is his bat. He won the Cape Cod League home run derby in 2012 and lead the league with a .567 slugging percentage in 2013. He’s strong with a quick bat and can hit it out to any part of the ballpark but – surprise – does tend to strike out a bit. He has a big arm – threw 97 off the mound – but like Simmons he wants to play everyday; gotta love that. The arm says right field but his legs say left; he isn’t slow but has just average speed and is just an average defender.
Davis started the year in A ball and a slash of .250/.322/.406/.728 got him promoted to high A in June. He had a little trouble adjusting as his second half slash – .206/.295/.318/.613 – suggests. He is however just 21 and has time to grow before needed.
Nick Swisher + $5M to Houston for Chris Carter
The Astros need a stop gap first baseman and having a veteran wouldn’t hurt. Swisher fills that need and allows them to get value from Carter. The money makes Swisher a $10M player and he should be worth that to Houston.
Carter is taken back as a backup to Freeman at first base and at either corner outfield spot, He’ll get about $5.6M in arbitration so we save some money and who knows, maybe Seitzer can help him make more contact.
Next: Now for the rebuild
Sep 26, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals shortstop
Ian Desmond(20) grounds out scoring right fielder
Bryce Harper(not shown) during the sixth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit:
Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
Rebuilding the Roster
The idea of giving up anyone of note for two years of Todd Frazier irks me. I like him but if he’s going to walk in two years and out pipeline can’t replace him it’s a waste.
Third Base:
Ian Desmond, four years, $12M plus an option of $15M for year five
Desmond came up looking like a can’t miss shortstop but at 30 years old his defense never quite became what was hoped and probably isn’t going to get better. As third baseman on the other hand he doesn’t have to make ll those complicated plays up the middle and his arm should be perfect for the role. His bat still projects to 20 homer power and maybe Kevin Sietzer can get rid of that horrible ground ball rate. The trick would be getting Desmond to agree to the move but there’s no reason why he couldn’t follow in Cal Ripken’s footsteps and be an All Star third baseman.
Right Field Ah-seop Son:
$14M posting fee, four years $40M the following from MLBTR says everything about the player
"Ah-seop Son is a 27-year-old corner outfield that has consistently posted strong marks in batting average and on-base percentage over the past five seasons in KBO. In that time, he’s batted batted .333/.409/.476, averaging 12 home runs and 16 stolen bases per season. This past season was one of Son’s best, as he .317/.406/.472 with 13 homers and 11 steals. Park makes plenty of contact, striking out in just 15.6 percent of his career plate appearances in Korea and drawing more walks (80) than strikeouts (78) in 2014. He’s walked at a 10.8 percent clip in his KBO career."
Son is essentially a younger, faster version of Nick Markakis. He won’t provide much power but he’ll get on base, go first to third and play solid right field defense.
Center field: Austin Jackson 2 years $22M
Once upon a time Austin Jackson was hot prospect for the Yankees. The Yankees sent him to Detroit as part of a three way deal and for a while it looked like he was about to blossom. In his five years withe the Tigers he slashed 277/.342/ .413/.755, hit 46 homers and stole 78 bases in 106 attempts. He also struck out 6999 times in 670 games; oops.
The Tigers wanted Jackson to be the stereotypical speedy leadoff man/center fielder; the speedy center fielder part was true. In 2011 he had 25 DRS for Detroit but never reached that level again. The Tigers sent him to the Mariners who were searching for the same guy the Tigers didn’t find and no surprise he didn’t turn up there either. His numbers dropped to .257/.297/343/.639 in 161 games over two years and the Mariners gave him to the Cubs for that illusive PTBNL. Now he’s a free agent.
Seattle is a place where careers go to stumble if not die and I don’t hold that detour against him. Jackson was never happy there but he can still be a plus defender and with Seitzer’s help and no mandate to leadoff the bat may return as well. At the very least he can keep the position warm for Smith.
Next: Catching Up?
Jul 5, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Cleveland Indians catcher
Roberto Perez(55) hits an RBI single against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the second inning in an inter-league game at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Catcher: Roberto Perez league minimum and A.J. Pierzynski one year $3M
The Braves would send Maurico Cabrera and another low level arm if necessary to Cleveland for Perez
I wrote about Perez before, he’s a solid defender, good at framing pitches and blocking balls in the dirt. He has enough bat and power to be a starter. Pierzynski is back for veteran presence and the forlorn hope that he can catch lightning in a bottle again.
Second base:
I love Jace Peterson but his bat didn’t hold up last year and he offers little in the way of power. Daniel Castro is no kid at 30+ and his bat isn’t better than Peterson’s while Ozhaino Albies is at least two years away
Jurickson Profar from Texas for Tyrell Jenkins, Lucus Sims and Dian Toscano or Rio Ruiz (or more if needed)
Profar is a former number one prospect who missed the last two seasons with shoulder injuries. Although originally a shortstop second base is probably a better option for him now. One thing there is no doubt about is his bat. Profar hits the ball with authority, walks at league average and strikes out below the league average. He may not hit 30 home runs but he’ll hit 10 to 15 homers a year and play superb second base. The Rangers are fielding questions about him and his price is going up. I think he’s worth an investment because of all he does for the team.
In position order that would be Perez, Freeman, Profar, Desmond, Simmons, Olivera,
Gardner
Jackson, Son.
More from Tomahawk Take
- Atlanta Braves 2012 Prospect Review: Joey Terdoslavich
- Braves News: Braves sign Fuentes, Andruw’s HOF candidacy, more
- The Weakest Braves Homers Since 2015
- Atlanta Braves Sign Joshua Fuentes to Minor League Deal
- Braves News: New Year’s Eve comes with several questions about the 2023 Braves
Starting Pitching:
I don’t believe the Braves will offer Mike Minor arbitration. He’s had a “setback” in his rehab and as I’ve said here several times, shoulders are unpredictable. That being the case I don’t expect to see him in Atlanta next year. If he is and he’s good hooray.
Doug Fister one year $5M + option year
Fister had a bad year in Washington but then the team as a whole was in in a funk. Fister would benefit from pairing with Roger McDowell and needs a pillow contract to regain market value. A year with an option or options allows the Braves to keep him if he’s good or let him go if they have something better lined up. When he’s right Fister eats innings and throw strikes that turn into ground balls. The infield I project won’t let many of those go through.
Zack Wheeler from the Mets for , Andrew McKirahan and Jason Hursh
The Mets need bullpen help that Hursh and McKirahan offer and will want an arm with upside for Wheeler. Wheeler is a Georgia native and projects to be a solid middle of the rotation arm but will be restricted to 100 innings or less next year. He’s closer than Sims and has major league experience.
Next: Bullpen Blues
Apr 6, 2014; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers reliever
Chris Withrow(44) delivers a pitch against the San Francisco Giants at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers defeated the Giants 6-2. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Bullpen
The bullpen should be fine from the right side with Jason Grilli, Arodys Vizcaino and Chris Withrow at the back end. Matt Marksberry did enough to be the situational lefty (LOOGY) and Ryan Weber fits as a swing man /spot starter.
Rich Hill: one year $4M Hill is coming off his best year in a long time and he can’t be expected to repeat 2015 but he should be good enough to be the other lefty in the Braves pen.
Fernando Rodney: one year $5M
Rodney had a bad year in Seattle and isn’t an everyday closer any longer but during his stay in Chicago he showed that he can still be an effective back end arm. Rodney’s fastball is still sharp, his change a nasty pitch and his experience means he doesn’t worry about high leverage situations. He doesn’t care which side of the plate you stand on he can get you out so there’s no need to mix and match, Now if we could just get him a hat that stays on straight. . . .
The Final Roster
I’m using Joey Terdoslavich as a bench bat to save money and because he needs to get a shot. That makes the final 25 look like this.
| Perez ( R ) | Carter ( R ) | Miller | Grilli |
| Freeman ( L ) | Bourn (L) | Teheran | Withrow |
| Profar (S) | Pierzynski (L) | Wisler | Vizcaino |
| A Simmons ( R ) | Peterson (L) | Fister | Marksberry |
| Desmond ( R ) | Terdoslavch (S) | Foltynewicz | Hill |
| Olivera ( R ) | Banuelos | Rodney | |
| Jackson (R) | Weber | ||
| Son ( R ) | Winkler* |
Yes, I can count that’s 27. Winkler is there for two months then returns to Gwinnett. Folty and Banuelos fight it out for the fifth spot in the spring. We have no lefty so Banuelos starts with an edge but the best arm wins. If Minor returns he gets a spot of course and both go to Gwinnett. I have that payroll at about $115M.
Next: Broken News About an Import?
Predicting the Braves 2015 Rotation isn’t an easy process. Graphic Created by Fred Owens for Tomahawk Take
Late News
According to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports 32-year-old Nobuhiro Matsuda declared free agency after the Japanese league season and want so to lay in the US. Mastuda played mostly third for the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball league since 2006 and always delivered some power. This year his 287/.357/.533/.890 slash dwarfed his career line of .277/.325/.477/.803 and he delivered 35 long balls in 603PA.
At 32 years old he won’t get a huge contract but he won’t need to go through the posting process and so will be relative inexpensive. I suspect a three year 18M contract might land him. I still prefer the younger, MLB proven Desmond at third but Matsuda provides an inexpensive alternative.
That’s A Wrap
I know there are holes in this, mostly in valuations and the assumption that a long deal will get Desmond to move to third. Desmond should look in the mirror and understand that he’s not a great shortstop but he has the power and tools to be great third baseman. Profar is worth paying for, his tools and instincts are undeniable and the man can hit. Jackson plays a solid center field, I initially wanted Gardner but couldn’t find make a good trade fit that I would do considering I wouldn’t trade Teheran or Miller. Besides the Yankess traded for a center fielder type from Minnesota today which likely means Gardner is off to Seattle.
I adjusted this after we signed AJ again. I was looking for Chris Ianetta or Geovany Soto behind Perez but reality got in my way again.
Next: What's the news tell me what's happening?
The projected infield has no holes and the outfield is sound if not spectacular. Smith may be up at the All Star Break but there’s no reason to bring him up earlier this year. If Fister bounces back this is a 500 club or better. The infield will hit 55 or so homers, the catching tandem 15-18 between them and Olivera should hit his 20 while the other two might get 5 each, and that clear the 100 homer mark. Is it perfect? No, but it ain’t bad.