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A Plan to Make the Atlanta Braves Contenders in 2016

Alan Carpenter
Alan Carpenter

House That Hank Built

The Atlanta Braves celebrate after defeating the New York Mets 6-3 at Citi Field. We want much more of this. Mandatory Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports

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Over the past month or so, I have been wrestling with this notion that the Atlanta Braves can and should continue to be aggressive with their pursuit of the ultimate goal – a playoff-contending roster.  Publicly, that remains a “2017+” aspiration.  I have teased with a few ideas that continue to make me think that the team is closer to that goal than some might expect… and some recent news has actually starting playing into the direction of those ideas.

As a result, it’s time – with the first session of General Manager meetings now underway in Boca Raton, FL – to stop teasing and fully throw that plan against the wall.

SO WHAT’S CHANGED LATELY?

Two very recent things of note:

  • Hector Olivera is now a Left Fielder.  That’s his position while playing for Criollos de Caguas in the Puerto Rican winter league.  He’s currently hitting .333 (6th in the league) with a pair of doubles and no strikeouts in 27 AB, by the way.
  • This from yesterday:
"Early word from the GM Meetings has the Cincinnati Reds looking to move star closer Aroldis Chapman and second baseman Brandon Phillips, according to a source. The team is also willing to listen to offers for third baseman Todd Frazier and outfielder Jay Bruce, the source said."

Reds former-GM-now-President Walt Jocketty is heading for the door after 2016, and GM/Senior VP Dick Williams is the new GM.  It appears that part of the job they are conspiring to do before Jocketty leaves town is to assist in cleaning the house – getting the Reds’ payroll down to something more manageable and instituting their own flavor of a rebuild.

All of that news plays directly into what I had in mind.  So here’s how Atlanta can begin contending:  now.

Next: Step 1 - the Infield

Oct 3, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Cincinnati Reds third baseman Todd Frazier (21) fields a ground ball against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the fifth inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The Plan – Step 1

Engage the Reds in a trade with the following primary goals:

The Financials:

  • Frazier is under contract for $7.5 million in 2016, plus has one arbitration year remaining in 2017 before hitting free agency.
  • Phillips is under contract through 2017:  $13m and $14m over the next two seasons.
  • Maybin is owed $8m in 2016 and has a $1m buyout of a $9m option for 2017.  Under this proposal, Atlanta would send $4.5 million to Cincinnati and carry the contracts of both Frazier and Phillips.
  • In total, Atlanta adds approximately $16 million in payroll; the Reds subtract a like sum.  But it’s not a long-term commitment, either as both new players

The Good Part:

  • Two significant bats are added to the Braves lineup, in addition to their above-average defense.
  • This also clears an outfield spot so that Mallex Smith and Michael Bourn can share the CF duties.  Either would be valuable off the bench when not starting.
  • From the Reds point of view, this would be a successful salary dump trade: that would be their primary motivation here, in addition to getting 2 young major leaguers.
  • Both Garcia and Maybin would hit very well in Great American Ballpark’s friendly dimensions.  They would lose something in terms of 3B defense, but the drop off in hitting would not be as significant since Maybin should be better in LF than anything they had in 2015.
  • Jace would be well-positioned to support Billy Hamilton by hitting 2nd in that lineup – which should also give him decent pitches to hit.
  • Williams Perez is a ground ball pitcher – exactly what they need, having lost significant pitching recently.
  • The Reds’ payroll was $88 million in 2012 and ballooned to $115 million in 2015.  Dropping back to $100 million would help them tremendously and this fits with the general idea of the Braves using their monetary flexibility to make strategic trades.

The Bad Part

  • Atlanta would lose the control over Peterson and Perez, which is significant.  That would have to be part of the calculus in prying Frazier away.
  • You only have Frazier for 2 years unless and extension could be worked out (not terribly likely).  But that does allow the right amount of time for Rio Ruiz and or Austin Riley to emerge.

You might also consider swapping Nick Markakis and Jay Bruce in this trade as well, but that really doesn’t help Cincy at all:  Bruce’s deal is over (sans option) after $12.5 million in 2016 while Markakis continues for 3 years at $11 million.  Even doing that while sending more cash to Ohio doesn’t really work, for Atlanta needs to save that money.

BACKUP PLAN

  • Keep Jace Peterson at second base and pursue free agent 3B David Freese.  Provides less power and requires more money than Frazier, though without Phillips’ deal; I agree with the MLBTR idea of 3 years and $30 million for Freese… except for the 3 years part most likely being too long for Atlanta’s tastes.

Next: Step 2 - The Catcher on the Sly

Nov 7, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; New York Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez during the Arizona Fall League Fall Stars game at Salt River Fields. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Step 2 – Catcher

Engage the New York Yankees in a trade for AAA prospect C Gary Sanchez.  Blocked by Brian McCann and backup John Ryan Murphy, Sanchez is expected to be a solid hitter, though both his defensive abilities and possibly his work ethic have come under question at times.

Additionally:

  • Re-sign C A.J. Pierzynski to a 1 year deal for $3.5m with a round of incentives that could allow him to reach $4m.  Once again, he’s the safety net.

The Financials:

  • With the trade – virtually no impact whatsoever:  all involved would be making the major league minimum
  • With Pierzynski:  an increase of $1m over 2015’s rate

The Good Part:

  • Sanchez would be under control for several years and provide another middle-of-the-order bat
  • Pierzynski would be his mentor.. the way it was supposed to work last season with Bethancourt

The Bad Part:

  • Sanchez has less major league experience than Bethancourt did, so throwing all of these eggs into his basket represents a risk.  But it’s intended as a long-term project, and no other option is better than this one.

BACKUP PLAN

  • There isn’t a great one, but A.J. Pierzynski + Bethancourt would be the initial next-best option.
  • Chris Iannetta is another possibility.

Next: Step 3 - the Next Pitch

Aug 30, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals pitcher Doug Fister (33) pitches during the fifth inning against the Miami Marlins at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Step 3 – Pitching and Bullpen

I will be less specific here, for there are many possible options:

STARTING PITCHER

  • If Mike Minor is healthy enough to tender an offer to (which is now very uncertain), then he will be the selection. Financially, that’s a wash vs. 2015 payroll.
  • Other options include Doug Fister, Mat Latos.  Either could be had for something in the $10-12m range.  If Minor is not offered a contract, then these numbers would represent $4m-$6m extra in payroll above the 2015 level.

We’re not looking for a Cy Young contender here (obviously), but someone who can mentor the youngsters and provide reliable innings.  Now neither of the two names just mentioned have exactly done that in the past couple of seasons, but they have when healthy… and that’s exactly the reason why they might be affordable to the Braves.

RELIEF PITCHER

The are several options here – there’s also the chance of picking up another player at the trade deadline as needed.  Here are a couple of the better possibilities:

  • Ryan Madson.  MLBTR suggests 3x$5m for him.  That’s probably too steep, but he does have closer experience, pitched very well in 2015, and could back up Arodys Vizcaino until Jason Grilli can pitch again.
  • Shawn Kelley.  The suggestion of 2x$6m for Kelley is even worse.
  • Tony Sipp.  MLBTR thinks he will stay in Houston; if three years is required to pry him away, then he can stay there.

So if the Braves opt to buttress the bullpen with a proven veteran, it will come at a cost – I figure they will have to spend at least $4 million to do so, and possibly for multiple years.  But this is discounted by dropping others that were on the 2015 payroll such as Josh Outman, Ross Detwiler, Jim Johnson, etc.  In addition, it seems there are a bunch of closers now on the market, which will lower the price for the 7th/8th inning relievers.

Next: The Finale

Sep 6, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Atlanta Braves left fielder Nick Swisher (23) in the dugout before the game between the Washington Nationals and the Atlanta Braves at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Final Step

Atlanta could continue to keep Nick Swisher around (and might have to):  he would be a valuable extra outfielder, backup first baseman, bigger bench bat, and good clubhouse guy.  But if a deal could be swung to mover him for as much as half his 2016 salary (which is $15 million), then I’d do it in a heartbeat… maybe even for only $5m of salary relief.

All of that would give Atlanta a depth chart like this:

That enough bats for you? That would stack up to be a team with a substantially improved offense and a pitching staff that could match up against most of the league… and it would be largely in place for 2016 and 2017.

Financially, the numbers suggested would increase payroll above the end-of-2015 level by approximately $16-$20 million… which would seem to be well within the threshold of the financial limitations.

In terms of prospects lost via trade, the pain could be absorbed by the length of time that the Braves would have players such as Sanchez, plus the idea that we’d hope to keep most of the players in the primary rotation.

Could either Cincinnati or the Yankees demand more for these deals?  Yes – and the Braves could choose either to walk away or to sweeten the pot.  Frankly, I don’t really think that giving those teams even a bit more in return would hurt Atlanta in the long run – and there are certainly reasons that they would be willing to make such deals at this time… but waiting until the 2016 off-season doesn’t seem to help.

I usually refrain from going ‘all in’ with speculation of this nature… but with discussions, rumors, and such as they have been recently, it was important to be on record as supporting this notion of a contending Braves club for 2016… and not simply waiting for 2017 to roll around.  You may certainly quibble about some of the trade pieces – and that’s fine: I want to hear your feedback – but I’d like to think that most of this is reasonable for both sides.

There are ways to make this happen – obviously not just in the manner laid out here.  But if the Braves’ “John Trust” (the triumvirate of John Schuerholz/Hart/Coppolella) want to insure that 2015’s results will indeed never happen again, then a proactive approach seems like the correct course of action.

Next: The Braves Lose a Friend

I will await their answers to come.

Alan Carpenter

Alan Carpenter

Software Engineer by trade, piano player on Sundays, Braves fan for life... yes, even through the bad years. Hoping to add an analytical perspective to what the Braves might be doing... and why. I'm a lot less serious about life than this picture makes me look. ——————————————————————————————Please consider a follow via twitter at @carpengui for fast updates on the latest/newest Braves' news.