Sep 29, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez (33) and Atlanta Braves catcher A.J. Pierzynski (15) talk in the dugout during the fourth inning of their game against the Washington Nationals at Turner Field. The Braves won 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
During interviews at the end of the season John Hart and John Coppolella said they would be aggressive in the free agent market but were not going to be players for the big name free agents. How can they do both?
Free agents are a payroll issue
Everyone wants the best players on their teams but for middle market teams like the Atlanta Braves sustaining huge payrolls is a fantasy. The Braves payroll’s averaged just over $95M since 2002 with four years exceeding $100M. Hart and company have said we can expect a payroll between 100M and 120M again next year and it’s reasonable to expect that to be the case. Sportrac projects a 2016 40-man payroll commitment of $79,168,898 without arbitration increases.
There are only five players arbitration eligible in 2016, Pedro Ciriaco, Mike Minor, Shelby Miller, Arodys Vizcaino and Chris Withrow. I expect Ciriaco to be nontendered. If as they’ve hinted they tender Minor a contract it will be at this year’s salary of $5.6M. Shelby Miller could see a bump to about $3M unless they extend him while Vizcaino could earn around $1M and Withrow $650K.
More from Tomahawk Take
- Atlanta Braves 2012 Prospect Review: Joey Terdoslavich
- Braves News: Braves sign Fuentes, Andruw’s HOF candidacy, more
- The Weakest Braves Homers Since 2015
- Atlanta Braves Sign Joshua Fuentes to Minor League Deal
- Braves News: New Year’s Eve comes with several questions about the 2023 Braves
If Peter Moylan is brought back as well he’ll earn at least $1.5M bringing to $90,918,898; let’s call that $91M for 14 players of the 40 the roster will eventually include.
These numbers are cap costs and include signing bonuses still due and retained salary for players traded but for whom we still have a financial obligation. In this case that’s $300K for Trevor Cahill with signing bonus amounts totaling just under $1.6M, not a significant amount is terms of a $120M payroll.
The $91M figure allows the Braves to spend another $29M maximum without trading anyone and they still need to add 11 players to fill the 25 man roster. Filling the roster with league minimum players raises the payroll $95M+ and isn’t a probable scenario if they do indeed intend to be a 500 + team next year.
It’s pretty easy to see that adding some one like David Price who will get somewhere north of $25M a year or Yoenis Cespedes at $18M a year isn’t practical in a market the size of Atlanta.
Oct 4, 2015; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Orioles catcher Matt Wieters (32) stands at home plate during the eighth inning against the New York Yankees at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Orioles won 9-4. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Other Limits
I would suspect that giving away a draft pick, even a second round pick, would be at the bottom of the of desirable outcomes. The team suffered to have the third pick, traded for a comp pick at around number 35 and will have a pick somewhere around 42 as well. When you’re restocking the minor league and are in a position to grab the best picks you don’t relinquish them.
That would make players like Howie Kendrick for example out of range. The Orioles are dithering on whether to give Matt Wieters a qualifying offer but I’d bet they will. Worst case for the Orioles is that he takes it and they trade him. That makes it more likely the Braves would be a realistic place for the Georgia native to land but he would be gone in a year along with whomever the Braves traded away; he is a Scot Boras client after all.
If he does go on the market the signing team will dump a pick and give him a contract around five years $85M or six years $105M. That’s risky for a large bodied catcher who will eventually have to play first base or DH.
So no long term, high dollar contracts and only give up a draft pick under the absolute right circumstances? Can we do that and still be aggressive? Sure! Okay, I’m not sure but probably yes.
Oct 4, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves left fielder Michael Bourn (2) scores a run against the St. Louis Cardinals in the first inning at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
How?
In general terms they’ll look for under valued players. Yes I know that isn’t new and everyone does it but I didn’t say it would be easy or that the players would be names the fans will immediately recognize or greet with applause. The Braves have however beefed up the analytics department and brought back the best scouts to help turn over the right rocks to find these guys.
Having built up the minor league system they won’t strip it to retool; any trades will be players they feel are duplicates; they have the same sort of upside and are thus expendable. They could also trade players who have reached their peak value, other teams have a real need for and are inexpensive in terms of the marketplace.
I expect John Hart to move either Michael Bourn or Nick Swisher in some sort of package. Swisher in particular looked to be capable of playing a corner and providing some bench pop and they may want to move the cheerleader before he wears out his welcome.They may also take a bad contract or two in the process. I don’t have any in mind but the names will popup as time moves on.
The one move they should make but apparently won’t is firing Fredi Gonzalez. The brain trust is in Orlando pondering next year and Fredi is there amongst them. If he was going to be sent packing he’d already be gone so at least part of another year of his bumbling leadership is ahead.
October 15, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers right fielder Andre Ethier (16) hits an RBI single in the first inning against New York Mets in game five of NLDS at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
That’s A Wrap
As I noted briefly above, I do have ideas about players they may pursue who fit the bill and won’t break the bank. I’ll get to those as the postseason moves on and we know more about who gets a QO and who might be moved just because – Andre Ethier for instance. Later today I’ll start with a shot at who we might look to fill the void behind the plate so look for that please.
I keep hearing cries for a new owner with deep pockets. Even deep pockets have their limit as the Braves found out when they lost $40M in 2003 – in spite of winning the division – and spent years suffering budget cuts while getting back into the black again. Unless Warren Buffet, Bill Gates or Donald Trump are in and willing to lose millions a year, a change of ownership won’t change the payroll much if at all.
Stay tuned here at the Take as we offer ideas and discuss opinions.