Atlanta Braves Have 3 Questions to Resolve this Off-season

Sep 9, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Atlanta Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman (5) watches from the dugout railing during the eighth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. The Braves won 8-1. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Some things are certain on the baseball field.  Things like penciling in players that have a long-term contract – those you can pretty well be assured will be with you for a while.  Players like Freddie Freeman, Andrelton Simmons, or Nick Markakis.

But as it happens, some questions have been raised… and it has been the coaching staff – namely Fredi Gonzalez – via either direct comments or lineup decisions that he made over the last month of the 2015 season.

So while public pronouncements have outright stated that the bullpen is the first priority, the real concerns may lie elsewhere… and solutions may be difficult.  Note that this truly isn’t some random speculation on our part:  it’s a composite of observations about what the team is saying and doing.

Let’s take a look… at 3 positions.

…

Next: Second Base

Sep 20, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves second baseman Jace Peterson (8) catches a pop up hit by Philadelphia Phillies right fielder Jeff Francoeur (not pictured) during the seventh inning at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Second Base – Jace… or…?

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On June 21st, the Braves purchased Touki Toussaint from the Arizona Diamondbacks, along with Bronson Arroyo (remember him?) and a few other bits and pieces in moves that seemed heavily skewed towards the Braves.

One of of the details was that Philip Gosselin went to the Diamondbacks.  Recall that prior to this trade, Gosselin was used occasionally at second base to spell Jace Peterson.  In addition, Peterson had been sharing some time with Alberto Callaspo until he was traded on May 27th.

The final straw, though, was this:  the trade of Jose Peraza to the Dodgers on July 30.  This seemed to remove all doubt as to who would man the keystone position for the foreseeable future.  The path was clear:  Jace Peterson was the everyday second baseman.  It was over, done.

Maybe.

Since hitting at a .282 clip in May – and even with .263 in June – Peterson has faltered, and badly so.  In July, he hit at a .174 rate.  August came in at .238;  .222 for the rest of the year after that.  For the full year, that .239 doesn’t at all look like the promise that he showed in AA (.311) and AAA (.306).

At the same time, Jace, who is now 25-1/2, jumped through the Padres’ system very quickly.  Those AA/AAA stints came in just 86 games during 2014 as he zoomed through 3 levels in a single year.

Perhaps the Braves were having second thoughts about these moves themselves, for when Daniel Castro was called up (twice:  July 25th for 2 weeks and again on September 1st), he started getting some playing time at second base.

In fact, Castro played 99 innings – 11 full games – at the position through the end of the year.  Now while he popped a couple of fence-scraper home runs, he didn’t exactly set the world on fire with his bat, either (.240 overall).  But he impressed, nonetheless and started us thinking about whether a L/R platoon might be in the offing.

THE QUESTION:  Does Jace stick at second base or does he go to AAA for more seasoning?

THE OPTIONS (in order of likelihood):

• Stick with Jace – expect he grows out of the slump after seeing a year of ML pitching.
• Platoon.
• Send Jace to AAA, go with Daniel Castro; though he looks ideally suited as the new utility infielder.
• Hector Olivera to second… but he’s also the subject of the next question.

Next: What If Hector Can't Catch?

Sep 9, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Atlanta Braves third baseman Hector Olivera (28) hits a single during the fourth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Third Base – Hector, or… ?

I’m not concerned about Hector Olivera‘s bat.  His glove might be another story, though, and that seemed to be signaled from Fredi Gonzalez when he was conducting his year-end interview with the beat reporters.  During that session, he mentioned Olivera going to Puerto Rico for a few weeks of Winter Ball – and fielding instruction was mentioned.  In addition, the idea of using him in left field actually came up.  The answer to that question?  ‘Not yet.’

That suggests work with his bat.  But fielding is more likely the real issue. In 21 games, Olivera was credited with 4 errors – three of them fielding errors.  Note also that in 42 games at 3rd base, Adonis Garcia was tagged with 10 – 8 of those being of the fielding variety (he had 8 more at AAA).

Want another point of comparison?  While Chris Johnson was with the Braves, he handled 627 games at third with 75 errors (includes Indians games this season).  It’s clearly early yet, but Olivera is close to doubling that pace.

The Braves are clearly hoping that the additional reps in Puerto Rico will help, but all of this does raise the possibility that a Plan B might be needed.

THE QUESTION:  Does Olivera stick at third base or does he elsewhere on the field?

THE OPTIONS (in order of likelihood):

• Hector stays at third… suffer along with him there until Rio Ruiz or Austin Riley can get to the majors (which could be a couple of years for either one).
• Move Olivera to Left Field, bring in Adonis Garcia for 3rd.
• Move Olivera back to his natural 2nd base position… see how Jace can do at third
• Move Olivera elsewhere – execute a trade for a ‘bat’ to play at third base… and to that point…

Okay, I can’t help it – but since we have a GM who has been making deals like this, it suddenly doesn’t seem as whacky as it might have just 16 months ago:

CRAZY OUT-OF-THE-BOX IDEA.

Execute a trade with Cincinnati to provide them with young pitching while the Braves take some of their bloated payroll.

• Cincy gets 2 pitchers they desperately need (I don’t really care what their names are in this fantasy) and Jace Peterson.
• Atlanta gets Brandon Phillips and Todd Frazier.
• Braves move Olivera to Left Field, Phillips to 2nd, and Frazier to 3rd.

Implications:

• Atlanta loses control of whatever pitchers might be involved (most with another 5+ years), but their pipeline would continue to feed new ones in, so that’s not a loss that they can’t overcome.
• Payroll:  Adds approximately $8-8.5 million for Frazier, $13m for Phillips.  Frazier has another arbitration year in 2017; Phillips is due $14m in 2017 for the last year of his deal.
• It adds two significant bats to the lineup… without being a huge contractual burden.
• The Gotcha:  Phillips has 10-and-5 rights, so he could veto a deal.  Also rumor is that he’s not a ‘clubhouse guy’.  However, he’s originally from Stone Mountain, GA, so maybe…

It’s the off-season:  if you’re gonna dream, dream big.

Next: Catcher Questions

Aug 29, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Matt Wisler (37) talks with Atlanta Braves catcher Christian Bethancourt (27) in the first inning of their game against the New York Yankees at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

Catch a Falling Star

You already know this question:  can Christian Bethancourt be a major league catcher?

One thing to point out:  he is still just 24 years old… though the mileage is starting to add up for him, as he’s been a Brave since 2008.  So while the question from 2015 remains in 2016, it’s not like he’s guaranteed to be a wash-out either way:  there’s still a decent likelihood that CBeth will be a productive backstop.

So the more detailed questions that the Braves have to answer about him are: “when will that happen?” and “can we afford to wait?”

This is clearly going to be the thing to watch this off-season:  already overtures were being made that Atlanta would like to have A.J. Pierzynski back in the clubhouse for 2016.  That may or may not be a signal of the Braves’ expectations for Bethancourt – after all, a true veteran catcher is often necessary for the purposes of both backup and pitcher tutelage.

Oh, and even if you really like that crazy trade idea from the prior page, realize that Atlanta probably can’t/won’t do two significant trades this off-season.  Certainly if they opt to replace Bethancourt, such a move would probably preclude a bat trade… though money might be more available under that scenario, particularly if Cameron Maybin is moved elsewhere.

THE QUESTION:  Will Christian Bethancourt be ready sooner than later?

THE OPTIONS (in order of likelihood):

• Let’s give it another year to figure things out.
• Let’s platoon him with ___________ (preferably AJP)
• Let’s sign a free agent of some ilk… Dioner Navarro or somebody
• Let’s go try to pry Gary Sanchez from the Yankees
• Let’s intercept a space alien catcher from a nearby star cluster (which is more likely than…)
• Let’s go try to pry Jonathan Lucroy from the Brewers

As always, your comments and thoughts are greatly appreciated… as are your efforts to check out that things we have to say.

Next: The New Top 20 Atlanta Braves Prospects